It’s hard to believe that we’ve passed the midway point of the season, and the NBA’s All-Star Weekend and trade deadline are rapidly approaching.
With 10 games, there’s a loaded NBA slate Wednesday with plenty of options to choose from in the PrizePicks lobby.
Let’s find some winners.
Brandon Miller (Hornets vs. Bulls) more than 21.5 points
Miller has enjoyed a mini-breakout month in the second half of January. He’s now cleared this number in five of his last seven games. But why is this happening now for the rookie?
Well, former teammate (and usage hog) Terry Rozier was traded to Miami more than a week ago, which has opened the door for Miller to get up more shots and play additional minutes.
LaMelo Ball is also doubtful to play Wednesday night against the Bulls, while teammates Gordon Hayward and Mark Williams remain out.
Without that supporting cast on the court, Miller receives a huge 6.3% usage increase and averages 23.23 points per 36 minutes this season.
But if you shrink that sample size to just the last two weeks, he averages 25.85 points per 36 with an excellent 29% usage rate.
This game has a tight spread, so I’m not worried about a blowout.
Chicago allows the least amount of points in the paint in the NBA, but unsurprisingly they yield the second-most 3-point attempts per contest. The Bulls choose to pack the paint, and you can’t cover the entire floor.
Miller averages team-leading 8.5 3-point attempts per 36 minutes across the last two weeks without those four inactive teammates (including Ball).
Miller’s biggest issue is staying out of foul trouble, as that doomed him early in a couple of games this month. If he can survive the first half without foul issues, he should play a full allotment of minutes and have a great opportunity to exceed this number.
Domantas Sabonis (Kings vs. Heat) fewer than 18.5 points
Despite Miami’s recent struggles, the Heat present a tough matchup for Sabonis, who has been on a tear recently. However, he’s enjoyed his success against several cupcake opponents in January.
Miami allows the 10th-fewest points in the paint this season, but more importantly the Heat yield just 9.5 offensive rebounds per game, good for the third-best mark in The Association.
Sabonis ranks seventh in offensive rebounds per game this season. With one of his biggest strengths negated, I’m thinking he’ll get one or two fewer easier buckets against Bam Adebayo and company.
Brook Lopez (Bucks vs. Trail Blazers) more than 1.5 blocks
This seems to be a sneaky-good spot for Lopez against Portland. I don’t mind getting a little crazy hitting the 2.5 number if you’re looking for a bigger payout.
Lopez is averaging 2.8 blocks per game this season. The Trail Blazers are yielding 3.38 blocks per game to opposing centers.
Offensively, Portland ranks 12th in drives per game with a low pass percentage and high turnover rate (during those drives) that both rank in the top 10.
The ball should be coming very close to Lopez throughout this game, and the Blazers have not been efficient in the paint.
