The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Dover, Del., for this weekend’s Cup Series race. The 1-mile short track hosts the Würth 400 on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on FS1.
Kyle Larson, the 2019 Dover winner, is the favorite (+450) at DraftKings. Four other drivers have +1000 odds or shorter, including past Dover winners Martin Truex Jr. (+600) and Denny Hamlin (+750).
My favorite picks for the Würth 400 feature a pair of past Dover winners. Overall, all four drivers have had success at the Monster Mile.
NASCAR Cup Series: Würth 400 best bets
To win: Martin Truex Jr. (+650, FanDuel)
Martin Truex Jr. should be the driver to beat in Sunday’s Cup Series race at Dover. Truex has four career wins at the Monster Mile, including this race last year.
Truex led 68 laps and had to hold off Ross Chastain and Ryan Blaney on a late-race restart to capture the victory. If we go back to 2019, Truex has finished first or second in five of the last seven Dover races.
He likely has the highest floor of any driver in the field. In 2022, Truex would’ve finished third if not for a spin on the last lap. He had speed early in 2021, but damage affected his overall pace.
It’d be a surprise if Truex didn’t run top-five all day. I think he’ll do even better with his first victory of 2024.
Ross Chastain top-3 finish (+240, bet365)
Ross Chastain has gone cold after a good start to the season. He enters this weekend with four straight finishes of 13th or worse, but Dover represents an excellent bounce-back opportunity.
In terms of total speed, Chastain has been the best driver across the last two Dover races. He led 86 laps en route to a third-place finish in 2022. Last year, he led 98 laps before finishing second.
He’s been the second-fastest car in the last two Dover races. If you believe in the trends, this should be the weekend for his first Dover win.
I like Truex a little more than him, but Chastain should be a prime contender for another top-three finish.
Denny Hamlin top-5 finish (+140, BetMGM)
Denny Hamlin has shown speed all season, as he’s the only driver to lead a lap in every race. There’s a good chance he extends the streak with a strong run at Dover.
Hamlin struggled at Dover for much of his career, but he’s turned it on over the last few years. His last six Dover races feature a win and three top-five finishes.
He may have been the car to beat in the 2022 race. Hamlin won Stage 1 but had to overcome a pit road issue. He worked his way back to fourth before being caught in a wreck. Hamlin likely finishes in the top five if not for the issue.
We’ve seen top-five speed from Hamlin virtually every week. He should have another strong showing at the Monster Mile.
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Chris Buescher top-10 finish (+120, BetMGM)
Chris Buescher could be an under-the-radar contender for Sunday’s race at Dover. Buescher already has five top-10 finishes this season and could make it six on Sunday.
Buescher didn’t finish better than 14th in his first 11 starts at the Monster Mile. However, he’s looked much better in the Next-Gen car, finishing eighth and ninth in the last two races.
He had the speed in both races, ranking fifth and eighth, respectively. We’ve seen that speed on display in 2024, with a trio of top 10s on traditional ovals.
I wouldn’t expect race-winning speed, but Buescher should hang around the back half of the top 10.
