Dover Motor Speedway is the site of this week’s NASCAR Cup Series race. You can watch the Würth 400 live on FS1 at 2 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Last season, Martin Truex Jr. captured his fourth career win at Dover. Truex held off a late charge from Ross Chastain to capture his first victory of 2023. Both drivers are among the favorites on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick aims to become the first driver to win back-to-back races in 2024. Reddick surged ahead after a final lap crash to win last week at Talladega.
How should you approach the Würth 400? Check out my favorite prop bets for Sunday’s Cup Series race.
NASCAR Cup Series: Würth 400 prop bets
Driver matchup: Bubba Wallace over Joey Logano (+120, bet365)
Every great driver has one track that gives them issues. Joey Logano is a two-time Cup Series Champion, but Dover has always given him trouble.
If we focus on the two races in the Next-Gen era at Dover, Logano has been terrible. He has a pair of finishes outside the top 25, and his speed ranking is 25th among 33 drivers.
Bubba Wallace hasn’t been great at Dover but has three straight finishes between 11th and 16th. That may not seem great, but that could get the job done with Logano’s struggles at Dover.
This is an excellent way to fade Logano for Sunday’s race at Dover.
Alex Bowman to win Group G (+220, Caesars)
Alex Bowman is quietly having a good season, recording four top-five finishes in 10 races. This week should bring out the best in Bowman, as he’s had a ton of success at the Monster Mile.
Over his last six starts at Dover, Bowman has five top-five finishes. That includes a victory in the 2021 race, leading the final 98 laps.
He’ll face Logano, Chris Buescher and Tyler Reddick for this bet. We’ve discussed Logano’s struggles, while Reddick and Buescher have never finished better than eighth at Dover.
We should see top-five speed from Bowman as he finishes ahead of Reddick, Buescher and Logano.
Top Chevy: Chase Elliott (+600, DraftKings)
The Chevy contingent will be tough on Sunday, with Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain and William Byron making up the race favorites. However, I’d keep an eye on Chase Elliott.
Elliott had been building momentum and finally found victory lane two weeks ago. He heads to a Dover track with two wins and nine top-five finishes. He won the first Next-Gen race at Dover, leading 72 laps in the 2022 race.
That marked the third time he’s led 70+ laps in his Dover career. I’m not saying we’ll see another dominant performance, but he has the potential.
Larson and Chastain are properly priced as the favorites, but Elliott shouldn’t be +600. I love the value of him leading the Chevy camp at Dover.
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Winning car number: 0-9 (+135, Caesars)
I talked about Elliott (No. 9) as a top contender in the Chevy camp. Well, we have two other Chevy drivers in this group with Chastain (No. 1) and Larson (No. 5).
Chastain is No. 1 in speed ranking at Dover over the last two races. He led 86 and 98 laps, finishing third and second, respectively.
If you take out last year’s race, Larson has four straight finishes of sixth or better at Dover. He had the car to beat in 2021, leading 263 of 400 laps. There’s no doubt he’ll be a top contender on Sunday.
Kyle Busch (No. 8) and Brad Keselowski (No. 6) are past Dover winners. The key drivers to watch for are Chastain, Larson, and Elliott.
