NASCAR odds, picks at Darlington

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Darlington Raceway for one of the season’s marquee events. The Goodyear 400 commences on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.

Last week produced one of the best races in recent memory, as Kyle Larson defeated Chris Buescher in the closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history.

Larson should be in contention again, as he won last year’s playoff race at Darlington. Can he replicate that performance with his third victory of 2024?

Below, we’ll examine my favorite prop bets for the Goodyear 400 on Sunday.

NASCAR Cup Series: Top Goodyear 400 odds

NASCAR Cup Series: Goodyear 400 prop bets

Driver matchup: Brad Keselowski over Kyle Busch (-105, DraftKings)

Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch are past champions of the sport and former winners at Darlington. Both enter Sunday’s race outside the top 10 in the standings but have shown flashes.

Busch is the favorite to finish ahead of Keselowski, as he’s shown plenty of speed at Darlington. He had an excellent chance to win the 2022 playoff race, leading 155 laps, but an engine issue ended his day.

Keselowski crashed out of the Spring ’22 race, but his other results at Darlington in the Next-Gen era are seventh, fourth, and sixth.

He’s one of the best at managing his tires, which is crucial at a high tire-wear track like Darlington. I’d take Keselowski as the underdog to finish ahead of Busch.

Josh Berry to win Group E (+250, bet365)

Group E features four mid-tier drivers: Josh Berry, Daniel Suarez, Michael McDowell, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Berry has far less experience than the others, given that this is his first Cup Series start at Darlington.

This track hasn’t been kind to either of the other three drivers, as they all have an average finish outside the top 20.

I like Berry’s chance on Sunday because of his performance in this year’s Bristol and Richmond races. He showed top 10 speed in both, finishing top 12. McDowell at Bristol (11th) is the only driver with a top 15 across the two races.

Bristol, Richmond and Darlington are high-wear intermediates, so they should correlate with each other. Look for Berry to win this group with a top-15 finish.

Top Toyota: Denny Hamlin (+200, DraftKings)

It’s never a bad idea to bet on Denny Hamlin in 2024. Hamlin likely would’ve captured his second straight win and fourth overall in 2024 without a late caution last week.

It feels like I say this every week, but Hamlin heads to one of his best tracks in Darlington. He’s led 42+ laps in three of the last five races, including a victory in the 2021 playoff race.

Hamlin had the dominant car in last year’s playoff race, but a loose wheel forced an extra pit stop, ending his chances of a win.

Martin Truex Jr. and Tyler Reddick are his biggest challengers. It could take a top-five finish to be the top Toyota, but that’s no problem for Hamlin at Darlington.

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Bubba Wallace finishing position under 13.5 (-115, Caesars)

There were high hopes for Bubba Wallace last week, as Kansas has been one of his best tracks. Unfortunately, it ended with his third straight finish outside the top 15.

Wallace should get back on track at Darlington. It took him a while to figure out the track, but he has three straight top-10 finishes.

These aren’t fluke finishes, as Wallace ranks 12th or better in speed rating over the last three Darlington races.

I think there’s a good chance Wallace scores a top-10 finish. We don’t need that much as 13th or better will trigger a winning bet.