Credit to Sean Manaea for coming up with some clutch outs last week in San Francisco.
Nonetheless, escaping that messy last start with zero runs allowed was quite lucky for the Mets left-hander, and it should not upgrade how we view him this season.
Manaea gets the nod for the Mets at home on Tuesday night against the Cubs.
Let’s take a look at the matchup and why Manaea and his counterpart could struggle in his sixth start of the year.
Cubs vs. Mets odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | +105 | +1.5 (-205) | o7 (-120) |
| Mets | -125 | -1.5 (+170) | u7 (+100) |
Cubs vs. Mets prediction
Manaea has pitched to a 4.58 xFIP and 5.06 xERA across 24 1/3 innings.
His stuff rates out pretty horribly (85 Stuff+), which continues to result in a lot of hard contact. He has been hard-hit 43% of the time this season.
Since the start of 2022, opponents own a 29% line-drive rate versus his three fastball pitches. Batters have slugged .452 versus his changeup in that same time frame.
His sweeper is the only pitch in his arsenal that is finding respectable results.
The Cubs have found excellent results versus left-handed pitching this season, too. They own a second best wRC+ of 137 versus lefties, with an OPS of .847.
Opposing Manaea on Tuesday is right-hander Javier Assad, and it seems likely MLB hitters will figure out how to hit him more effectively going forward.
His stuff actually grades out worse than last season, a year in which he put up a 4.35 xFIP.
He owns a Stuff+ rating of only 90, which has lead to below-average chase and whiff rates.
In time we should expect his hard-hit rate to look more comparable to last years 41.2% mark.
After their 0-5 start to the season, the Mets have trended in the right direction and that includes improved offensive play.
They have hit to a wRC+ of 100 against right-handed pitching, and own a fifth-best BB/K ratio of 0.48.
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The conditions will be pitcher-friendly at Citi Field on Tuesday night. Forecasts are calling for 66 degrees with 8-10 mph winds coming in from right field at first pitch. Those conditions are part of the reason for the low game total of 7.
Still, I think this total is too low because both Assad and Manaea are overvalued right now and both offenses have strong splits to their handedness.
Since it’s specifically the starters that should struggle in this matchup, I am going to target the first five innings to go over 3.5 as my best bet.
