The Mets rallied late Tuesday night, cutting a six-run Braves lead to one in the bottom of the ninth (and spoiling my Under 9.5 ticket in the process).
They came up short, but the offense has woken up.
Meanwhile, the Braves continued cooking, producing another six-run performance. Atlanta’s lineup leads all MLB offenses in fWAR (3.8) and wRC+ (138), while being tied for runs scored (69).
It’s not all good news, though. Superstar ace Spencer Strider could be out for the foreseeable future, again taxing Atlanta’s sketchy starting pitching depth.
Youngster Allen Winans has been recalled from Triple-A to make his seventh career major-league start.
His second-ever big league start came against the Mets – the team that initially drafted him – where he tossed seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts.
But his third start came in Queens, where he allowed seven runs across nine hits.
The Mets will counter with Jose Quintana, who has looked excellent in his two starts this year.
With Kodai Senga hitting the injured list, the 35-year-old southpaw steps into a much more critical role.
Mets vs. Braves odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | +136 | +1.5 (-142) | o9.5 (-112) |
| Braves | -162 | -1.5 (+120) | u9.5 (-108) |
Mets vs. Braves prediction
(7:20 p.m. ET, SNY)
Quintana has allowed nine earned runs across 10 ⅓ innings in his past two trips to Truist Park, the most recent coming last August.
That makes sense. Quintana is a sinker-curveball pitch-to-contact lefty who relies on solid command (102 Location+) to compensate for weaker stuff (88 Stuff+).
The Braves crush those types of pitchers. With seven righties in the lineup, they profile, project and perform better against lefties, scoring a 135 wRC+ against the side in 2023 compared to 123 against righties. They also boast the second-highest OPS (.897) and xwOBA (.401) against southpaw sinkers since the start of last season.
I think Winans has potential as a middle-rotation piece, but I’m curious about his upside. He boasts excellent command and control of his four-pitch mix, plus his elite extension helps with deception. Still, he lacks stuff (77 Stuff+, no above-average pitches) and velocity.
Meanwhile, the Mets offense has woken up, posting 13 runs during this series in Atlanta. As mentioned, they’ve gotten to Winans before, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do it again.
Plus, who knows how long Winan’s leash will be? He only made one Triple-A start before getting recalled, so he might not be fully stretched out.
And if he’s pulled early, the Braves could be in trouble. Closer Raisel Iglesias tossed 23 pitches Tuesday night, while Aaron Bummer and Tyler Matzek pitched in 19 each. The bullpen looks a tad stretched.
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I bet the Mets-Braves Under on Tuesday partially because of the weather, as the cooler temperatures and in-blowing wind would suppress the run environment.
While the winds are still projected to be coming toward home plate, the humidity and temperature have risen, so the run environment is actually higher than Tuesday. BallParkPal’s Park Factors project only a -4% run factor for Wednesday night’s game.
So, between Quintana’s struggles at Truist, Atlanta’s slim pitching depth and two red-hot offenses, I’m willing to heel turn and bet the Over in this divisional game.
Mets vs. Braves pick
Over 9.5 (-112, DraftKings)
