Playing on short rest after picking up wins on Tuesday, the Mavericks and Heat will have a quick turnaround when they face off on Wednesday night.
The situational spot could be more problematic for Miami, considering it needed two overtime periods to get past the Hawks (117-111), while Dallas comfortably defeated Charlotte, 130-104.
Bettors can utilize this information to target a first-half play in this matchup.
Mavericks vs. Heat odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks | -1 (-110) | -112 | o213.5 (-110) |
| Heat | +1 (-110) | -104 | u213.5 (-110) |
Mavericks analysis
The Mavs are riding a four-game winning streak, and they’ve been one of the hottest teams in the league, winning 15 of their last 17 games.
The Mavs finished last season fifth in offensive efficiency (113.2 points per 100 possessions), and yet still managed to miss the playoffs.
They were probably a bit unlucky because they went 38-44 on the year and still had a +0.1-point differential.
Based on those numbers, ESPN’s Relative Percent Index suggests Dallas probably should have been closer to a .500 team, which would’ve been enough to at least qualify for the play-in tournament.
This season, Dallas is a much more cohesive team and there’s a better understanding between its two star players, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
The Mavericks’ performance in clutch games, where the score is within five points in the fourth quarter or overtime, is just one example of their improved partnership.
At 23-9, they own the NBA’s best winning percentage (.719) in clutch games this season.
Heat analysis
With three games remaining in the regular season and trailing sixth-seeded Indiana by 1.5 games, Miami might have to win its way into the playoffs through the play-in tournament.
Maybe that’s not such a bad fate since the Heat navigated the play-in tournament to reach the NBA Finals last season.
As a result, this Miami team is unlikely to be too bothered by its current position in the standings.
At this point in the season, the goal might just be to keep everyone as healthy as possible before the postseason gets under way.
One player the Heat will be particularly mindful of is Terry Rozier, who missed Tuesday’s game against Atlanta with neck spasms and is a game-time decision on Wednesday.
Since Rozier arrived from Charlotte in late January via trade, Miami’s net rating improved by 2.9 points from +0.4 to +3.3.
However, an improved net rating hasn’t always corresponded with wins, as Miami is just 15-16 when Rozier plays.
Mavericks vs. Heat prediction
(7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Considering Miami played an extra 10 minutes against Atlanta, fatigue could be an issue in the early stages of this game.
The Heat struggle in the first half when on short rest this season. According to our Action Labs database, Miami is 3-9 against the spread in this spot and 0-3 at home.
With Dallas laying 1.5 points in the first half, the Mavericks are the likelier of the two teams to get out to a fast start.
Pick: Mavericks 1H -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
