The Clippers return home after tying their first-round NBA playoffs series with the Mavericks at two games apiece.
They managed to secure a victory in Game 4, a testament to their adaptability in the absence of Kawhi Leonard, who is set to miss his second consecutive game and third of the series.
Remarkably, the Clippers have shown resilience, winning both games when Leonard was absent and losing the ones he has played.
Yet, the betting market might be overvaluing his importance in this series, given that he’s not at 100%.
Los Angeles opened as a one-point favorite, but now it’s a three-point underdog at most sportsbooks.
That’s quite an aggressive move for a Clippers team that might have a higher power rating without a hobbled Leonard on the floor.
Mavericks vs. Clippers odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks | -3 (-110) | -154 | o209 (-110) |
| Clippers | +3 (-110) | +130 | u209 (-110) |
Mavericks analysis
Dallas has its own injury concerns as Luka Doncic is dealing with a sprained right knee, which might be impacting his ability to generate sufficient lift on his perimeter shots.
In his last two games, Doncic shot just 4-of-23 (17.3%) from beyond the arc.
The Clippers are making Doncic expend his energy defensively as they try to match James Harden against him.
In Game 4, Harden shot 5-of-7 from the floor in the four minutes Doncic guarded him.
The Clippers’ strategy is to attack Doncic, potentially wearing him down, which could significantly impact the Mavericks’ offensive game.
After all, Donic’s usage rate of 36% is the highest in the league.
Suppose he continues to struggle from the perimeter. In that case, the Clippers can send fewer double teams in his direction and drop more into the paint, where the Mavericks have successfully created high-percentage lob-scoring opportunities.
Clippers analysis
This series feels personal between Harden and the Mavericks. The Clippers’ point guard is up against his former teammate, Kyrie Irving, whom he spent two difficult seasons with in Brooklyn.
Although Harden and Irving combined to form a super team with Kevin Durant, the Nets failed to get past the second round in the playoffs.
Injuries and Irving’s firm stance against receiving a COVID vaccination during the pandemic resulted in the three future Hall of Famers playing just 16 games on the court together over two seasons.
As a result of Irving’s choice, he was in and out of the lineup and didn’t feature in Brooklyn’s away games in states or cities where players needed a vaccination to be granted entry.
Harden used two words to describe his time with the Nets — frustrating and dysfunctional. And while he stopped short of blaming Irving for the team’s demise, the breakup was anything but amicable.
At 34, Harden looks rejuvenated in this series, averaging 26 points compared to 16.6 during the regular season. If he continues to turn back the clock, the Clippers will be a tough out at home.
Mavericks vs. Clippers pick
With Leonard unavailable, the Clippers don’t have to worry about feeding him the ball, so he gets in a rhythm. They are almost uninhibited, free to run their offense as they please.
Harden and Paul George can match the star power of Doncic and Irving on the Mavericks. The Clippers also have the better Defensive Rating (109.5 vs. 111.5), and they’re getting more scoring production out of their bench (22.5 vs. 18.5).
But what’s interesting about this series in the games Leonard has sat out is that the Clippers were highly aggressive from the perimeter, shooting 36-for-65 (55.3%) from 3-point range.
It’s worth noting that Los Angeles is the fourth-best perimeter shooting team in the league at 38.3%, but it’s 22nd in attempts with 33.3 per game.
The Mavericks’ perimeter defense is a clear weakness. It ranks in the bottom third of the league in opponent 3-point percentage (37.1%) and 3-point field goals allowed (13.1).
Betting on the NBA?
Look for the Clippers to continue to benefit in the matchup with Harden against Doncic’s weak perimeter defense.
Lastly, according to our Action Labs database, postseason home dogs off a win that opened as a favorite are 16-10-1 (61.5%) against the spread.
The Clippers are currently a better team without an injured Lenoard, and at +3.5, I’ll gladly pocket the points.
