The number of illegal immigrants in the country has roughly doubled under President Joe Biden. The United States had some 10.2 million illegal immigrants in 2020, and another 10 million have entered during Biden’s presidency. If the 20 million illegal immigrants were all in one state, it would be tied with New York for the fourth most populated state.
And here’s even worse news. If Biden wins a second term in office and there is no serious reform of U.S. immigration and asylum laws — both of which are very real possibilities — we can expect a continuing increase in the rate of immigrants crossing the border illegally.
If some 10 million immigrants have crossed the border in the three years since Biden became president on Jan. 20, 2021, we could be looking at 15 million to 20 million more by the time he leaves office on Jan. 20, 2029.
According to Pew Research, there were only 3.5 million “unauthorized immigrants” — Pew’s term — living in the U.S. in 1990. That number peaked at 12.2 million in 2005, then gradually declined, including during the Trump years, to 10.2 million in 2019.
What about during the Biden years? According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the Border Patrol had some 8.5 million illegal immigrant “encounters” from fiscal year 2021 through November of 2023.
Besides the 8.5 million encounters, there are those who entered the U.S. illegally with the express intent of avoiding detection. Estimates put that number at 1.7 million “gotaways” over the past three years, which gives us the 10 million estimate.
Of course, these numbers are estimates. No one can be sure of the actual number, especially since many here illegally do their best not to be detected. Whatever the real number, it is larger than ever and growing quickly.
Which is why Biden’s failure to enforce border policies is likely to be a problem for the country, the economy and especially for Democrats.
First, the vast majority of illegal immigrants don’t have government-provided work permits, and it could take years before they get them — if they ever get them. Yet their expenses start immediately. They need food, shelter, transportation, clothing and many will need health care, all of which cost a lot of money, as the mayors of New York City and Chicago have recently come to realize.
If these immigrants can’t legally work soon, many of them will enter the underground economy, working as contract labor for cash or engaging in illegal activities.
And don’t forget about the strains on public schools. All of the newly-arrived school-age children — most of whom won’t speak English — will be able to attend public school at taxpayer expense.
Families and communities will help some of the arrivals, and refugee agencies have been very engaged. But the vast majority of these costs will fall on local, state and federal taxpayers.
Second, Biden’s open-border policies have made immigration reform toxic among Republicans and conservatives, just as President Donald Trump’s efforts to enforce immigration policies was toxic for Biden, progressives and the mainstream media.
It’s so sad because the U.S. economy needs immigrant workers, from the highest to the lowest skilled. We had a functioning guest-worker program during World War II, and for several years after. An updated and improved Bracero Program could address many of the economy’s needs.
There is a bipartisan effort to pass immigration reform. But since Biden has failed to enforce current immigration laws and policies, it’s not clear why anyone should trust him to enforce new laws.
Third, the immigration issue is likely to become even more toxic soon. Progressive Democrats are pushing for citizenship for the new and previous arrivals, and several progressive U.S. cities already allow illegal immigrants to vote.
Republicans, not unreasonably, see these efforts as similar to Democrats’ attempts to pack the U.S. Supreme Court or impose federal election laws as a way to ensure a Democratic majority and their policies.
Finally, while most immigrants are just looking for a chance to grasp the American Dream and build a better life for themselves and their families (and who can blame them for that?), Border Patrol has seen a significant increase in foreign nationals on the terrorist watch list crossing the border.
There are lots of countries that don’t like us and would like nothing better than to strike a major blow against the United States. There are almost certainly terrorist cells operating in the country right now, just waiting for the right opportunity to create political chaos — say, two weeks or a month before a presidential election.
If, heaven forbid, a major terrorist attack occurs, and it is discovered that the perpetrators entered the country during Biden’s open-border fiasco, we can expect a devasting voter backlash against both immigrants and, especially, Democrats.
Merrill Matthews is a resident scholar with the Institute for Policy Innovation in Dallas, Texas. Follow him on X@MerrillMatthews.
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