Even in diplomacy, there are version-control problems.
This week, Hamas agreed to a deal that Israeli officials did not believe was the same deal they had read. This only left even greater confusion as to what framework or deal is on the table and under whose authorship.
So, the blame game between Hamas and Israel over who is standing in the way of a ceasefire has not ended. A hoped-for pause in the war in Gaza has yet to begin. In fact, Rafah is now facing an Israeli attack and a corridor for humanitarian aid is closed.
But there is still time for a deal.
Making the ceasefire work matters. A hostage deal is in the interests of everyone, particularly those trapped in Gaza, where a humanitarian crisis has been growing daily. They need this pause in fighting most.
Military pressure is often the straw that breaks the camel’s back, and it may finally push Hamas to accept a ceasefire proposal from Egypt and Qatar, which Israel agrees to, rather than see 1.5 million Palestinians on the move, again, with famine looming. Threats of more force are often a “force multiplier” with shuttle diplomacy.
This ceasefire will have many winners if it can happen.
Families of hostages may get some relief in their pain and anguish. Israelis have been protesting daily for the release of hostages, many of whom come home scarred and traumatized by their ordeal. Many women have been reported raped in captivity by Hamas. They need safety, and healing.
For Israel, its public diplomacy and relations with other countries will be better served by a diplomatic outcome than by storming Rafah and prolonging the war. Its security will be enhanced by a diplomatic track with countries like Saudi Arabia and a coalition of the willing; Israel’s ability to meet the threat from Iran last time around relied on America and others, who might not be willing to help in the same way on a future strike.
For the U.S., this breakthrough is critical. U.S. officials have been frantically pushing for a pause in the fighting. The director of the CIA, William Burns, has put his personal credibility on the line and is in the region. He deserves kudos, as does President Biden for sticking to negotiations.
If a deal is reached, the Biden administration can breathe a bit easier. College campuses are on fire over this issue; commencements are being cancelled as more than 2,500 protestors have been arrested nationwide. News of the deal might give some protestors pause, although most will want to keep going, arguing that the issues of divestment from Israel are not addressed by this ceasefire.
Countries in the Middle East will benefit from the deal — especially Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which borders Gaza and is one of the critical points of entry for food, medicine and supplies. What many casual observers do not recognize is how close to a defense pact deal the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have come — or that the Hamas terrorist attack of Oct. 7 was at heart an attempt to hijack such talks and reclaim global attention.
The ceasefire could reset the Israeli-Saudi normalization deal, with the Saudis getting an American security guarantee not unlike what the United States gives to countries like Japan and U.S. assistance to help Riyadh build a civilian nuclear plant to meet the growing energy needs of its population. An Israeli-Saudi thaw could also undermine Iran’s ambitions in the region; while the Saudis are pouring money into technology, Iran is using its resources to build nuclear weapons.
Iran may also benefit from a ceasefire; though their proxies like Hezbollah will still be busy disrupting the region, the people of Iran, who are not supporters of war in the Middle East, can see their government’s resources used to improve their own economy — not the coffers of Hamas.
A ceasefire will not cure all ills. The Middle East is a microcosm of global insecurity, with a war still raging in Ukraine, tensions around Taiwan, China threatening the world order and major domestic and international challenges. But on a human level, ceasefires save lives, and that is worth celebrating if it pans out.
Tara D. Sonenshine is a former U.S. undersecretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs and currently a fellow at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
