Why Donald Trump selected Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate is still unknown. What did Trump see in Vance, who once called the former president “America’s Hitler” and unfit for the presidency? And what caused this transformation?
Assuming Congress and the states do not repeal the 22nd Amendment to allow presidents to serve more than two terms, Vance will likely be the Republican frontrunner for president in 2028.
Trump must believe that with the proper guidance and mentorship, Vance could be a successful president. But aside, from his children, Trump has managed to avoid having any proteges rise to high office.
In fact, the number of former senior officials Trump chose to serve in his first administration (including his vice president) who are now in strong opposition to his reelection should be instructive.
If one fast-forwards to 2027, when presidential candidates will be announcing, Vance will almost certainly be one of them. Clearly, his ambition will be an issue.
From Vance’s perspective, should Trump win, actuarial tables show that there is some probability he will not complete his term of office. In the worst case, that could make Vance president or acting president. And unless Vance offends his benefactor, he would be in the post position for 2028.
The last president to dump his vice president was Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who had three (John Nance Garner, Henry A. Wallace and Harry S. Truman). Barack Obama is a more current example, in which he preferred Hillary Clinton to follow him rather than his vice president, Joe Biden.
So there is some precedent for Trump to reverse course, especially if he sees his own interests conflicting with Vance’s late in his second term.
Trump of course may have had other motivations for choosing Vance as opposed to a more recognizable ally such as Nikki Haley or Sens. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) or Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). That motivation could have been derived from a little history and Richard Nixon’s 1968 campaign.
Whom did Nixon choose as his vice president? Most Americans will not recall Spiro Agnew, the disgraced former governor of Maryland. Agnew had a modest resume, serving as a Maryland county executive and governor until he was selected to become the nation’s 39th vice president.
The FBI subsequently investigated Agnew for bribery, extortion, taking kickbacks and tax fraud. In 1973, after months of claiming innocence, Agnew pleaded guilty to one count of tax evasion and resigned.
One reason Nixon had selected Agnew was as an insurance policy against a potential impeachment and conviction removing him from the presidency.
Simply put, who would accept Agnew as president in the middle of the Cold War and with Vietnam still raging? Had Agnew and not Gerald Ford been vice president in 1974, would Nixon have resigned over Watergate? If he had been impeached, would the Senate have convicted him? Those would have been interesting questions.
In Trump’s thinking, lawfare is responsible for his convictions in New York on 34 counts of bookkeeping violations. Suppose he is given jail time.
Three other cases against him remain. While a judge has dismissed the classified documents case on the grounds that the special counsel’s selection was unconstitutional, that almost certainly will be reversed. Based on the public record, Trump must be worried he will be convicted in a trial of wrongful possession of highly classified material.
The cases over fomenting the Jan. 6 riot that occupied Congress, and Georgia‘s election interference and obstruction charges against Trump, seem strong. The president’s pardon powers only apply to federal and not to state courts in Georgia or New York. With Vance as vice president, does the Spiro Agnew model apply?
In the Senate, where Vance was not popular with everyone, is a convicted Trump better in the White House than a young, unpopular vice president? One can wonder. But of all the reasons why Trump picked Vance from a fairly robust bench, an insurance policy makes some sense.
That would not extricate Trump from his legal issues if he is elected president and then convicted in at least one of the three cases he faces.
Still, with more than a whiff of linkage between Nixon’s choice of Agnew and Trump’s choice of Vance, the notion of an insurance policy and antidote against conviction by the Senate must have some merit. Think about that if Trump wins and the legal cases against him proceed.
Harlan Ullman Ph.D. is a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of the “shock and awe” military doctrine. His 12th book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large,” is available on Amazon.
