One of the more common debates heading into fantasy baseball draft season was whether or not to invest early in starting pitching.
For years, the majority leaned towards drafting hitters first and using the middle-to-late rounds to build a fantasy rotation. The tide began to turn about seven years ago and the “pocket aces” strategy of drafting elite starting pitching early took over.
It lasted a few seasons, but following a rise in injuries and questions surrounding a “juiced-up” baseball, only the staunchest pitching enthusiasts held their ground. Today, even that contingent will now tell you that focusing on the offensive categories is the way to go, and if you are sitting on an elite arm, you may want to think about selling high right now.
The number of pitchers currently on the injured list is enormous. We’ve lost Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber, Blake Snell and Framber Valdez, all considered top-20 pitchers coming into the season. Add in Bobby Miller, Justin Steele, Eury Perez and Merrill Kelly, and it’s more than just an epidemic.
The impact of losing a high-end starting pitcher you drafted in the first or second round is mammoth. If you lose a hitter, you can cobble together help in the various offensive categories. It may take a little extra work, but it is attainable, as the law of averages and sheer volume of at-bats can help you along. For pitching, it is much different. To lose someone like Strider, it is nearly impossible to regain the strikeouts while maintaining strong ratios.
But you still need a decent rotation to win your fantasy league, so identifying the issue and learning how to avoid it is paramount. The problem is that there is greater demand for pitchers to throw as hard as they can on every pitch and with as much spin as possible. Years ago, aces like Pedro Martinez would hold a little something back throughout the game, only digging deep when they absolutely needed it. Nowadays, there is no holding back.
You also have the issue with former pitchers like current Red Sox GM Craig Breslow and pitching coach Andrew Bailey demanding their starters throw breaking balls almost exclusively. The strain that puts on an arm is the reason they’ve already lost Lucas Giolito, Nick Pivetta, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello. Each of them had increased the number of breaking pitches by at least 12 percent. If you are riding Kutter Crawford right now, be afraid.
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Boston is not the only culprit here, so it may be time to jettison some starters from your roster via trade. The Diamondbacks, Astros, Dodgers and the Rangers are all guilty as well.
This isn’t to say you need to unload all your pitching for lesser talent. You are simply going to have to work the trade phones steadily, and gradually weave many of these pitchers on and off your roster. It takes some extra effort, but certainly less effort than trying to find any sort of talent on your waiver wire once the injuries pile up.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball news and advice.
