When President Biden dropped out of this year’s election, Kamala Harris seemed in many ways his opposite. Biden is from the northeast, Harris Californian; Biden is elderly, Harris energetic; Biden is a Washington insider, Harris a relative newcomer to the city.
When Biden’s polling numbers reached their nadir, many thought Harris’s personal differences made her the candidate who could defeat Trump. Yet Harris put little daylight between herself and Biden’s administration, especially on foreign policy.
Asked on ABC’s “The View” if there was anything she would have done differently than Biden, Harris was stumped. “There is not a thing that comes to mind,” she said.
That was a mistake. Beyond the obvious issue of sticking so closely with Biden when his overall approval rating was mired around 40 percent, Harris should have taken that opportunity and others to distance herself from her boss’s foreign policy.
People think the world is less safe than it was four years ago. Many hold Biden responsible for this. Among Americans’ 10 most commonly cited fears this year, there were six related to international conflict. Last year, there were four. In 2019, there was only one. Fewer than one-third of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of foreign policy.
Harris’s strategy on foreign policy questions was to contrast herself with Trump. This did not work.
A recent report I issued along with my colleagues showed Trump ahead of Harris by 8 percentage points among Americans in the swing states on the question of who would be a stronger foreign policy leader. Trump led by 16 points as “most likely to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine” and “most likely to respond effectively to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.”
The sole foreign policy issue on which Harris had an advantage — if you could call it that, among swing state Americans was “most likely to send U.S. troops into an unnecessary war,” where she was 7 points ahead of Trump. Even on the question of which candidate would more effectively respond to a space alien invasion, Trump led by 7 points.
Nationally, the issues were more divided, although the margins were thin. Among the swing state voters who decided this election, Trump had a substantial lead on foreign policy.
Harris did not respond to her candidacy’s weakness in international affairs with the urgency it deserved. When she caught fire for closing ranks with Biden on “The View,” she tried to clean things up during her Fox News interview a week later.
“My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency,” Harris said. “And like every new president that comes into office, I will bring my life experiences, my professional experiences and fresh and new ideas. I represent a new generation of leadership.”
But Harris never presented specific ways her global leadership would differ from Biden’s. Most of her foreign policy originated from Biden’s White House.
In a speech delivered alongside President Volodymyr Zelensky, Harris said she would oppose any deal that ceded Ukrainian territory to Russia. She went further, labeling any suggestions to that effect “dangerous and unacceptable,” and “proposals for surrender,” signaling continuity with Biden’s position on supporting Kyiv.
My team’s polling shows that among independent voters, 22 percent listed Biden’s handling of the Russian invasion as one of his greatest foreign policy failures. A plurality of respondents cited concerns the conflict will escalate to a nuclear or regional war. Meanwhile, two-thirds of Americans think the U.S. should push for a negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia.
On Israel, Harris received more press for what she did not say than for what she did. In her 60 Minutes interview, Harris offered rhetorical empathy for Palestinians, without placing any conditions on U.S. support for Israel. Harris maintained that her administration would continue Biden’s efforts to negotiate a ceasefire — without the unequivocal support for Israel that Trump offered.
Harris’s message upset both sides, according to my organization’s polling. Twenty-eight percent of independent voters list Biden’s handling of Israel-Gaza as one of his top foreign policy failures. Majorities of Democrats and independents think the U.S. must either condition or end military aid to Israel. Meanwhile, a plurality of Republicans think the U.S. must support Israel’s war effort unconditionally.
Heading into Tuesday, it was widely reported that Arab Americans were breaking from Harris in droves over Biden’s handling of Israel, which might have cost her Michigan. Polling also showed Harris and Trump tied in Georgia and Pennsylvania, both of which Trump ultimately won by less than 2.5 percentage points.
My team’s report demonstrates that Trump had an edge in those states on foreign policy issues. Foreign policy was rarely Americans’ top issue at the ballot box. Exit polling showed it ranked dead last among voters’ priorities. But in a year where the margins were razor thin, it probably did not help Harris’ chances.
Ransom Miller is a research associate with the Institute for Global Affairs.
