Believe it or not, the 2024-25 college basketball season starts Monday.
Here’s my favorite bet to win this year’s national championship: Gonzaga.
It’s rare to see talented college basketball teams stay together in the transfer portal and NIL era.
Somehow, Mark Few convinced four starters and over 80% of minutes from last year’s squad to run it back in Spokane.
The Bulldogs improved mightily as last season progressed, eventually riding the nation’s fifth-best offense (by efficiency) to a Sweet 16 appearance.
Unfortunately, they were upended by the national title runner-up (Purdue, in an 80-68 defeat).
I fully expect everyone to improve with another year in Few’s system. But I also think there are several other reasons to buy the Zags.
Among the returners, Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman spearhead a deadly backcourt.
Nembhard has consistently improved over the past three seasons, posting career-high marks in assists per game (7.1) and pick-and-roll points per possession (.91) last season.
He should elevate to an All-American point-guard level in his second year under Few.
Hickman’s development as a spot-up shooter was massive — he shot 46% from deep during conference play.
His shooting ability is perfect alongside Nembhard’s penetrate-and-dish capabilities, and it helps space the floor for the front-court scorers.
Returning big men Graham Ike and Ben Gregg were the primary reason the Bulldogs ranked third nationally in paint points per game (41).
It took a while for Gregg to find his place in Few’s system, but he went ballistic from January onward, shooting over 75% from inside the arc and 35% from outside while scoring in double digits 12 times.
He’s a walking mismatch in the front court with his mobility at 6-foot-10.
Ike was a dominant post presence at Wyoming, but he reached new heights with the offensive-minded Bulldogs, pouring in 16 points per game last year while averaging 1.12 post-up points per possession (PPP) (92nd percentile).
Of greater importance, Ike improved mightily as an interior defender last year, ranking above the 70th percentile of D-I players in post-up PPP (.72) and roll-man PPP (.69) allowed.
He was a nightmare deterrent at the rim, and Gregg is no slouch in that department, either.
Ike’s improvements are among the main reasons Gonzaga ranked 13th nationally in two-point shooting allowed (45%).
Throw in 7-foot freshman Ismaila Diagne and 6-10 Braden Huff as front-court depth pieces and Gonzaga’s sizeable interior defense may be impenetrable this year.
In Few’s run-and-gun system, backcourt and wing depth are even more critical than front-court depth.
The longtime head coach grabbed two key portal divers on the wing in 6-7 Pepperdine transfer Michael Ajayi (17 ppg last year) and 6-5 Arkansas transfer Khalif Battle (15 ppg last year).
Those two can score in bunches by running and gunning alongside the talented backcourt.
Betting on the NBA?
While Gonzaga lost an excellent defender in Anton Watson, Ajayi, Battle, Tarleton State transfer Emmanuel Innocenti and returning wing Dusty Stromer are all plus defenders.
With all the switchable on-ball wing defenders, the Zags’ perimeter defense should improve.
Gonzaga ran out of gas last year because it needed more depth.
These Bulldogs have an embarrassment of riches at all three levels. I love the roster construction and expect year-over-year improvements from the main pieces.
In a weakened West Coast Conference (St. Mary’s should take a step back this year), the Zags will vie for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, assuming they hold their own in a brutal non-conference slate.
Recommendation: Gonzaga to win 2025 national championship (18/1, DraftKings).
