Former President Donald Trump appears to have the edge in the perennial swing state of Georgia, where he was defeated four years ago. The Peach State was the site of much controversy after the 2020 election, including a longstanding feud between Trump and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
Here’s everything you need to know about Georgia.
Polling
With less than one week to go before Election Day, Trump has more than a 2-point advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris, according to RealClearPolitics‘ average of polls. Betting markets signal an even more profound gap in Georgia. Polymarket showed Trump ahead by more than 30 points with millions of dollars in bets placed. A similar margin could be found on PredictIt.
How Georgia Has Voted In The Past
Trump prevailed by roughly 5 points in Georgia during the 2016 election, helping to solidify his overall victory against Democrat rival Hillary Clinton. But in 2020, President Joe Biden and his running mate, Harris, defeated Trump and Vice President Mike Pence by a much smaller margin in Georgia: 0.25 points. Just over 12,500 votes out of about 5 million made the difference.
What The Candidates Are Saying
Over the past couple of weeks, while campaigning in Georgia, Trump pledged to lower energy prices and secure the southern border. He appealed to Christian voters, saying Republicans would “never lose” if they turned out. He also knocked former First Lady Michelle Obama, saying she made a “big mistake” in being “nasty” to him while she campaigned for Harris in Atlanta.
Harris rallied in Atlanta along with former President Barack Obama, rocker Bruce Springsteen, actor Samuel L. Jackson, and filmmakers Tyler Perry and Spike Lee. The VP talked about taking the opportunity to “turn the page on the fear and divisiveness” under Trump. Harris also has sought to woo congregants at black churches through a “Souls to the Polls” effort.
Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), and Harris’ VP pick, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, have scheduled stops in Georgia during the final stretch of the campaign as both tickets vie for the 270 mark needed to win the Electoral College. Harris is set to return over the weekend.
Georgia Republican Governor Brian Kemp, who says he did not back Trump in the 2024 primary but will support the GOP ticket in the general election, told Fox News in August: “there’s no path” for Trump or any Republican to win the Electoral College without Georgia.
What Early Voting Shows
More than 3 million early votes had been cast as of October 30, according to state data — nearly half the number of active voters in Georgia. The deadline for early voting is Friday.
Also on October 30, Georgia’s Election Data Hub showed that 206,333 out of more than 342,000 absentee ballots had been accepted so far.
Fulton County, a Democrat stronghold where most of Atlanta is located, has led the other counties in terms of early-voting turnout.
When Can We Expect A Result?
The 2024 presidential election in Georgia may not be called by the end of Election Day, particularly if the race is close.
Raffensperger recently told CBS News his state will get overseas ballots no later than Friday, November 8.
“Those will then be the final numbers,” Raffensperger said. “And we’ll just see if that makes the difference in the total vote totals. I understand we’re very competitive, and that’s why we’ve done everything since day one to make sure we have fast, accurate and secure elections for all my voters here in Georgia.”
The deadline for county certification returns is November 12.
What Counties To Watch
Cobb and Gwinnett counties in the Atlanta suburbs could be key in 2024. They went for GOP nominee Mitt Romney in 2012, but swung in the Democrats’ favor in 2016 and even more so in 2020. Rural counties such as Baker and Peach, which according to the Savannah Morning News have larger-than-average black populations, went for Trump in the past two elections after backing Barack Obama twice. And there are counties, including Baldwin and Jefferson, that voted for Biden in 2020 yet split the ticket in 2022, backing Kemp and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA).
Voting Issues From 2020 To Now
Although Democrats raised concerns about voter suppression over a 2021 election integrity law, with some calling it “Jim Crow 2.0,” early voting this year has been record-breaking.
“Georgia voters know we’ve made it easy to cast a ballot. It’s really that simple,” Raffensperger said in a statement after early voting surpassed the 3 million mark. “Over the past four years we’ve worked tirelessly to prepare for this election by adding Early Voting days and investing in infrastructure, only to be rewarded with the lies of Jim Crow 2.0 and a missed All-Star Game. We’re [battle] tested and ready, despite the critics.”
Georgia, like other states, grappled with election integrity matters in the 2020 contest. Multiple tallies affirmed Biden’s victory while a flurry of GOP lawsuits were dismissed. Still ongoing is Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ 2020 election racketeering case against Trump and his allies. Trump, who has pleaded not guilty, says he is being targeted by politically motivated lawfare.
In late October, the Georgia Supreme Court rejected a GOP effort to quickly revive new rules for ballot counting and certification that proponents argued would be good for transparency and accountability. The rule would require paper ballots to be counted by hand, and a judge called it “too much, too late” for the state to undertake.
A judge had earlier invalidated the election rules, calling them “illegal, unconstitutional and void.” Critics of the rules claimed they could be used to cast doubt on the results and disrupt the certification process. Georgia election laws say the results must be certified by the Monday after the election.
In one recent turn of events related to the 2024 election, Georgia officials said they stopped a cyber attack on the state’s absentee voter website.
Georgia officials indicated during a press conference on October 30 that they expect lawsuits from the losing side in the presidential election.
Other Races To Watch
Besides the presidential contest, Georgia residents are voting in their local U.S. House race, but not any for the U.S. Senate or governor this year. Among the other face-offs is one in which Willis is seeking re-election as Fulton County DA. WABE reported how there are three state measures on the ballot, too. They include one for a local homestead tax exemption, another on creating a tax court with statewide jurisdiction, and a third on a personal property tax increase.
The leading voting issue for Georgia residents is inflation, followed by “preserving democracy,” immigration, abortion, healthcare, crime, and the war in the Middle East, a recent Marist survey revealed. Trump got better marks when it came to the economy, immigration, and the war in the Middle East, while Harris was viewed as being stronger on abortion and democracy.
