The metrics don’t love Caitlin Clark.
Clark, the No. 1 pick in the 2024 WNBA Draft, is stunningly No. 6 in ESPN’s ranking of rookies based on a variety of advanced statistics.
The former Iowa star falls behind, in order: Cameron Brink (No. 2 pick), Angel Reese (No. 7), former Iowa teammate Kate Martin (No. 18), Rickea Jackson (No. 4) and Julie Vanloo (international signing).
Clark leads WNBA rookies with 15.6 points per game entering Friday, more than four points ahead of the second-highest scorer in Reese, but ESPN’s models are dinging her for her mediocre shooting numbers and poor defense.
“Why is Clark ranked so low? Advanced metrics have always struggled with how to assess high-usage scorers — especially early in their careers, as the ability to create shots on a bad team comes along before the ability to actually make those shots at a decent percentage,” ESPN’s Neil Paine wrote. “Clark has the creation part down, for herself (she ranks eighth among all players in usage rate at 27.5%) and others (her assist rate of 34.1% ranks sixth), and that’s not counting the passes her teammates failed to convert.”
ESPN’s rankings are based off three metrics: Basketball Reference’s win shares, estimated wins added via Player Efficiency Rating and wins generated according to Simple Player Rating (SPR).
Those three totals are averaged into what ESPN dubs “Consensus Wins,” and that statistic is used to rank the rookie on a “per-minute basis.”
And then — we apologize if we’ve lost you at this point — each rookie is graded from 0 to 100 “relative to all WNBA players this season in their scoring (based on points per 100 possessions), true shooting percentage, passing (based on assist rate), rebounding rate and defensive impact (based on both SPR and defensive rating).”
The simplest way to break down Clark’s standing is she simply is not shooting well enough, scoring volume points on lots of shots on an awful team and is a defensive liability.
Clark is shooting just 35.7 percent from the field on 13 attempts per game and a disappointing 29.7 percent from 3 despite averaging 8.3 tries per game.
With Iowa, Clark shot 46.2 percent from the floor and 37.7 percent from 3.
Ball security has been an issue too, with Clark averaging an astonishing 5.4 turnovers per game, to go along with 6.4 assists.
The defensive picture is much worse.
Clark ranks 132 out of 138 qualified players in the WNBA’s defensive win share metric, although she may as well be Gary Payton on the Fever since five of her teammates rank below her.
That all adds up to a profile that ranks behind five others.
“Clark’s ranking should improve as the season goes on,” Paine wrote, “but she is a good example of why the stats often disparage high-usage, low-efficiency young players on bad teams.”
UConn coach Geno Auriemma explained that Clark is not yet physically ready to dominate the WNBA.
Opposing teams have not been shy in their attempts to bully Clark.
“This kid’s on the wrong team, she’s got the wrong skill set to handle the physicality of that league, and she’s a rookie,” Auriemma said on the “Dan Patrick Show.”
He added: “She’s just not built for the physicality of this league. And she’s not quick enough to get away from the physicality. So there’s a lot of learning curve, like Diana (Taurasi) said. And when she gets it, she has elite skills that are gonna really help her. But she needs to be on a better team and she needs to be more experienced. And that will come.”
Another factor could be how Clark went right from the national championship game to playing in the WNBA one month later, compared to the longer layoff for NBA rookies.
Clark and the Fever (2-9) return to the court Friday on the road against the Mystics.
