Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a prominent election forecaster, predicted Monday that this year’s elections will result in a House divided by one vote.
“Just like the presidential race, the battle for the House has been a Toss-up for essentially the whole cycle,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball editor-in-chief Larry Sabato, managing editor Kyle Kondik and associate editor J. Miles Coleman wrote in a piece published Monday.
“Our general belief throughout was that the presidential and House winner was likelier than not to be the same,” they continued. “Our final ratings reflect this, but only by the barest possible margin and with little confidence. We have 218 seats Safe, Likely, or Leaning Democratic, and 217 Safe, Likely, or Leaning Republican.”
The House is currently headed by Republicans, but very narrowly, and are hoping to keep it. A forecast from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ gives the GOP “a 52 [percent] chance of winning the House.”
“Our Toss-ups split 8-6 Leans Democratic versus Leans Republican, with one other significant move: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R, IA-1) moves from Leans Republican to Leans Democratic,” Sabato, Kondik and Coleman said, also noting a recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey that found Vice President Harris garnering 3 more points than former President Trump in Iowa.
The forecasters also noted alterations in their predictions for House races, like those of Reps. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.), Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) and Angie Craig (D-Minn.), stating that they went “from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, as Republicans never seemed to get real traction against any of them and any losing would be a huge upset.”
“We also are moving a couple of sleepers that have been mostly ignored by the big outside spending groups on each side from Likely to Leans: the open, Democratic-held MD-6 that runs northwest from the DC suburbs and Rep. Nick LaLota’s (R, NY-1) race on Long Island against former CNN commentator John Avlon (D),” they added.
