Some call it the best rivalry in sports.
At the minimum, it’s the best rivalry in college hoops.
Duke travels to Chapel Hill on Saturday for another massive edition of Blue Devils vs Tar Heels.
North Carolina still leads the all-time rivalry, 143-117, but Duke is on a two-game winning streak.
Saturday’s clash has extra importance, with these teams holding the top two spots in the ACC standings – UNC is 9-1, while Duke is 7-2.
North Carolina dropped its first conference game on Tuesday, losing to Georgia Tech, 74-73.
Therefore, Saturday sets up as a potential bounce-back spot.
But I can’t back the Tar Heels at this number.
Instead, I’m targeting a low-scoring game for my Duke vs North Carolina Prediction & Pick.
Duke vs. North Carolina prediction
The Tar Heels are a supernova pace-and-post offense.
The guard trio of Elliot Cadeau, RJ Davis and Cormac Ryan run the floor and dump the ball down low to post merchant Armando Bacot.
So, what’s the key to stopping the Heels?
It’s about having a good transition and post-up defense.
Lucky for him, Jon Scheyer has both.
The Blue Devils aren’t elite at preventing efficient transition scoring (1.00 PPP allowed, 57th percentile), but they are elite at denying those opportunities altogether.
The Blue Devils allow the 30th-fewest transition possessions per game (9.1) and rank in the 88th percentile of teams in fast-break points per game allowed (7.3).
Jeremy Roach, Jared McCain and Tyrese Proctor are three hard-nosed defensive guards who are athletic enough to stay with North Carolina’s backcourt and physically demanding enough to throw them off their game.
Meanwhile, Kyle Fillipowski and Mark Mitchell are surprisingly effective interior defenders, as the Blue Devils rank in the top 20 nationally in post-up PPP allowed (.68).
They’ll both make Bacot’s life challenging.
So, I expect the Blue Devils to deny the Tar Heels’ pace-and-post offense viciously.
On the other end of the court, I don’t love the offensive matchup for the Devils, as the Heels should hang with Filipowski on the roll.
That’s Duke’s primary way of scoring, and North Carolina ranks above-average in ball-screen roll-man PPP allowed (.96 PPP allowed, 65th percentile) — the UNC forwards are proving themselves as skilled defenders, including Bacot, Jalen Washington and Harrison Ingram.
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Additionally, North Carolina’s among the nation’s best transition defenses (9.9 possessions per game allowed, 61st nationally; .84 PPP allowed, fifth nationally), so neither team will get easy up-and-down buckets.
So, I don’t see either team scoring efficiently in the open- or half-court, and I don’t see either team generating second-chance points against two of the best defensive-rebounding teams in the ACC — UNC ranks second in the ACC in conference-only defensive rebounding rate while Duke ranks fourth.
This all feeds into a low-scoring rivalry rock fight.
That’s how the last two games played out.
Duke’s won the last two battles 62-57 and 63-57, respectively, both games flying Under closing totals between 143 and 145.
We should see a similar game script, with Duke viciously denying North Carolina’s pace-and-post and the Heels defending Filipowski in the pick-and-roll while both teams effectively clean the glass.
I’ll happily bet another Duke vs North Carolina Under.
Duke vs. North Carolina pick
Under 152.5
