Anyone who dreamt of, hoped for or expected a significant upheaval in the presidential race or a cry for a replacement Republican presidential nominee in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s convictions on 34 counts of felony business fraud was in for a rude surprise.
The Republican reaction was predictable enough. The self-anointed “law and order” party ignored the magnitude of their dear leader’s crimes.
There appeared to be less GOP criticism of Trump now than there was after the 2016 release of his crass comments in the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape when high-profile Republicans like then-House Speaker Paul Ryan (Wis.) jumped ship. Eight years later, it’s clear as day that Trump now owns the party formerly known as Lincoln’s, lock, stock and barrel.
But GOP big wigs did criticize President Biden for weaponizing his Justice Department. Those charges ring hollow since there isn’t a scintilla of evidence the White House had anything to do with the Manhattan district attorney’s decision to prosecute the felonious GOP standard-bearer or the jury’s choice to convict him.
The president’s son, Hunter must have found these Republican claims ironic as he stepped into a Wilmington, Del. federal courthouse to face charges of lying to obtain a gun permit. He also faces a federal indictment for tax evasion in California.
Allegiance to The Donald is clearly more important than the party loyalty to Trump intimates.
Prominent Trump campaign officials even landed heavily on their own nominee for U.S. Senate in Maryland, former Gov. Larry Hogan for having the temerity to make an innocuous comment about the case. Hogan merely said that he respected the rule of law.
Hogan’s harmless statement was more than enough for Lara Trump, the co-chair of the Republican National Committee and the presumptive nominee’s daughter in law, along with his campaign manager Chris LaCivita to launch broadsides against their party’s Maryland candidate whose success is key to the GOP’s quest to retake the Senate. Discretion being the better part of valor, Hogan wisely decided to skip the GOP coronation convention next month.
In Manhattan, Trump fought the law and the law won but the felony convictions barely caused a ripple in the voter pool. A national poll conducted by Morning Consult after the media splash over the convictions indicates that the race is still as tight as a tick on a hound dog.
The results shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s not likely that many voters still cherished Trump’s status as a choir boy after his misogynistic “Access Hollywood” comments or his liability for sexual abuse against E. Jean Caroll.
Don the Con is still the Teflon Don. The question is what, if anything, will it take to take him down.
Opinions about Trump and Biden are so baked in that it would take a thermonuclear explosion to break open the concrete bunkers that divide warring Democratic and Republican partisans.
In a land far away at a time long ago, the conviction of an ex-president for falsifying business records to cover up hush money payments for an affair with a porn star would have rocked the campaign with outrage. But that was then, and this is now.
Political polarization is as wide and deep as the Pacific Ocean. It has divided Americans so deeply that partisans of a scandal-plagued candidate will ignore his escapades while an equal number of the opposition candidate’s acolytes will be justifiably horrified.
The best chance to move the needle against Trump is the federal case against him for possession of top-secret documents at his palatial estate, Mar-a-Lago. His hoarding of sensitive military and diplomatic papers was dangerous and reckless malfeasance. But the trial judge, Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee has done everything she can to clean up the mess he left and to delay the proceedings until after the election.
The lack of voter reaction to the Trump convictions indicated that it’s still the economy stupid. Trump supporters fear inflation and government spending so much that they are more than willing to overlook Trump’s crimes.
Trump may not be in handcuffs, but his campaign is tied up in knots. The convictions will cast a dark cloud over Trump’s first debate against his successor on June 27.
Then, Judge Juan Merchan will sentence Trump on July 11 which is just four days before the start of the GOP convention. The big question is whether the party’s standard-bearer will need a running mate, a cell mate or both.
Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster, CEO of Bannon Communications Research and the host of the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.
