Democrats are warning against a full-blown meltdown over polls showing President Biden behind former President Trump and the party in danger of losing its Senate majority.
Anxiety among Democrats is at a high-water mark, but leaders are used to it. Every cycle comes with severe bouts of tortured hand-wringing, including the 2022 midterms, when the party had a better outcome than expected.
“I know that there are people freaking out, there always are. This is not news, in essence,” said Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg. “The way I describe the election now is that we’re a higher seed team in the basketball tournament. We should win. But we have to go out and win the game. And it’s tied early… but I think we’re much more likely to win this thing than they are.”
Biden is consistently polling behind Trump or neck and neck, with the polling averages from DDHQ/The Hill showing Trump leading by just more than 1 percentage point.
Concern peaked Monday when Politico reported on a collective “freakout” among top Democrats as Biden continues to struggle in a number of battleground states and has seen Trump’s fundraising hit a new gear in recent months.
While some Democrats acknowledge these concerns are valid, they argue time is on their side.
“Democrats historically are professional worriers,” said John LaBombard, a Democratic strategist with Rokk Solutions who served as a top aide to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). “That said, this year’s election includes higher stakes than almost any in recent American history and includes battleground state polling numbers that are certainly not as confidence-inducing as many of us would like.”
“Democrats are right to be concerned given that overall picture, but the amount of time between now and November is a lifetime in electoral politics,” he continued. “Concern is warranted, but bedwetting is not.”
Jim Messina, former President Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, also conveyed optimism about Democrats reaching voters ahead of November.
“We’ve known since the beginning that this would be a close election and the campaign is doing the work needed to reach the voters that Biden needs to win,” he told The Hill.
The Biden campaign, meanwhile, is working to maintain a sense of calm, which operatives note is a hallmark of the president’s operation. His advisers kept the faith during the perilous times of the 2020 Democratic primary and throughout the general election and came out victorious.
The Biden campaign has for months said it knows the election will be close, but has largely brushed off polling several months out.
“This election will be close like all presidential elections in this country are. What matters is which candidate is running on a popular and winning agenda, and which candidate is putting in the work to earn the votes of the people who will decide this election,” Biden campaign spokesperson Seth Schuster said. “Joe Biden is that candidate, while Trump continues to do nothing to build a winning coalition.”
Trump outraised Biden in April for the first time this cycle, bringing in $76 million compared to Biden’s $51 million. Biden still tops Trump entering June with $192 million total in cash on hand.
Biden has major fundraisers scheduled for June, including in Los Angeles with Obama and Hollywood actors George Clooney and Julia Roberts, and in Virginia with former President Clinton. On June 27, Biden and Trump are set to face off in the first presidential debate of the general election cycle, an event that could boost engagement with voters on both sides of the aisle.
The Trump campaign pounced on the Politico report, using the fact that the Biden campaign held a press conference outside of Trump’s New York courtroom on Tuesday as an example of Democrats’ worry.
As attorneys delivered their closing arguments, the Biden campaign brought out actor Robert De Niro and former police officers who protected the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, for the press conference — a move Republicans painted as a desperate attempt to break through the headlines and gain media attention while the Trump verdict loomed.
“Why is Joe Biden now making this a campaign event after months of weaponizing the legal system against President Trump? Because Joe Biden’s numbers are in the tank,” Trump senior adviser Jason Miller told reporters, making note of the report. “Joe Biden is losing nationally. He’s losing in every single battleground state. And President Trump’s numbers continue to rise.”
But Democrats argued the press event was beneficial in several ways. They argued the Biden campaign can’t afford to miss out on any opportunities to spotlight Trump’s troubles, especially ahead of the June debate.
Some strategists also found it important for the campaign to break through the media wall as Trump’s allies were talking to reporters daily outside the courthouse.
“You have to feed the news-of-the-day beast, and I feel like a lot of times the [Biden campaign] struggles with that,” said one Democratic operative with experience working on Senate races. “The news out of the White House is important but it’s not always newsy or interesting, so it doesn’t make hours and hours of MSNBC or CNN content. De Niro in New York does, so I don’t hate doing stuff like that.”
“It’s not going to win you a swing voter in Pennsylvania, but at least it keeps the news of the day off of ‘Biden’s old,’” the operative added.
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