Democrats are growing increasingly nervous that former President Trump will woo centrist voters away from President Biden.
They say Trump, after quickly securing victory in the GOP primary, is now taking steps that could help him win the support from the broad middle of the country.
The best example is the former president’s decision to not back a 15-week ban on abortion and instead say the issue should be up to the states — clearly the move of a candidate with his mind trained on the middle of the electorate.
“If the election were held today, Trump would win and that means he’s winning moderates over as we speak,” one Democratic strategist acknowledged.
The strategist, who has worked on presidential campaigns, pointed to recent polls that showed the former president ahead in key states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
Trump’s public stance this week on abortion was a clear signal of his desire to shift to a more centrist position on an issue that has repeatedly helped win elections for Democrats since three Trump-appointed judges helped form a majority that overturned the Roe v. Wade decision.
In moving away from proposals for a federal ban on abortions at 15 or 16 weeks, Trump angered some anti-abortion activists.
“He understands that the politics that have followed the Dobbs decision have not been great for Republicans,” said Republican strategist Doug Heye, who does not support Trump and didn’t support him in the previous two election cycles.
In going after middle-of-the-road voters, Trump has focused on the economy and the border, two areas where Biden has looked vulnerable in polls.
Recent polling shows that about two-thirds of Americans aren’t satisfied with the way Biden has handled border security, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs poll last month.
Earlier this month, a Wall Street Journal poll — which showed Trump ahead in six out of seven battleground states — revealed that voters viewed the national economy in largely negative terms, even with strong jobs numbers and record gains in the stock market.
In that survey, respondents in all seven battleground states viewed Trump more favorably over Biden when asked who is “best able” to handle the economy. In Nevada, for example, Trump outperformed Biden 57 percent to 33 percent on the issue.
On immigration and border security, respondents in every state preferred Trump to Biden.
Biden won over centrists in 2020, but some Democratic strategists express unease about the coming rematch, saying they fear many of these voters are showing an openness to supporting Trump despite the myriad lawsuits and criminal counts he faces.
“The thing that’s most alarming is that people know this guy and even though they’re turned off by him, they’re willing to accept his flaws because they think he’d handle these issues better than Biden has,” the Democratic strategist said.
Another party strategist, Brad Bannon, added that particularly on the economy, “moderate voters are scrambling for an alternative.”
If Biden is going to prevail, “he’s going to have to do a lot better selling economic issues than he’s doing now,” Bannon said.
Democrats say they have to keep making the case to moderates about the danger Trump poses to the nation.
“There is no ‘moderating’ for Donald Trump, a man so interested in himself that he tried to undermine a democratic election, but he will do his best to induce a collective amnesia,” said Tim Hogan, a Democratic strategist.
“He will sign a national abortion ban and proudly champions ending Roe. He will cut taxes for the wealthiest. He says immigrants are poisoning our blood,” Hogan continued. “Trump will say and do anything to save himself, and the battle for Democrats this year is to remind voters how extreme and dangerous he truly is.”
Both Democrats and Republicans said that with two known principals at the top of the ticket, it will be tough to move polling numbers unless something major happens in the coming months as the election inches closer.
And so far, many acknowledge Trump appears to be the favorite, at least based on public sentiment.
“Trump has to make the election about the economy and immigration and if he does that effectively, he wins,” said Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak.
“For most voters, it will be a referendum on both of them,” Mackowiak added. “Was Biden’s presidency better for you? Or was Trump’s presidency better for you? That’s subconsciously in the minds of voters right now and really that’s what it comes down to. Trump has really got to hope that Biden doesn’t right the ship.”
