Democrats are battling to flip control of the House at the polls next week, eyeing gains in battleground districts from coast to coast in an effort to win back the Speaker’s gavel after two years in the minority wilderness.
The fight for control of the lower chamber remains neck and neck, and campaign handicappers say the gavel is still up for grabs with just eight days left before Election Day. Both parties concede the contest could tip either way.
Democrats got a big boost over the summer, when Vice President Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the ticket, bringing a surge in fundraising, volunteerism and general enthusiasm among base voters who had been deflated by Biden’s dismal approval ratings.
Party leaders are also animated by the fact 18 incumbent Republicans represent districts won by Biden in 2020, and many of them are vulnerable. Indeed, there are 14 Republican incumbents in “toss-up” races, representing the most competitive contests in the country, according to the latest tally from the Cook Political Report, and another is in the “lean Democrat” column.
But Democrats lost a bit of ground during the redistricting process, which is expected to net the Republicans one additional seat. And Democrats have 11 “toss-up” races to defend themselves, including three contests where Democratic retirements have put the seats in play. Still, Democratic candidates have vastly outraised their GOP opponents in races across the country, and party leaders are voicing confidence they’ll seize control of the House next year.
Here are seven seats where Democrats are most confident they can pick off sitting GOP lawmakers in their quest for the House majority.
New York-22: Brandon Williams
Rep. Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.), a first-term conservative, is among the most vulnerable GOP incumbents this cycle. Although he swept into office in 2022 on New York’s red wave, his margin was only 1 percentage point — roughly 2,600 votes — and Biden won the district by roughly 7 points two years earlier.
Since then, state redistricting changes have shifted the 22nd District even further toward the Democrats — Biden’s margin in the new district would have been 11.4 points — and handicappers at the Cook Political Report have the race “leaning” in favor of Williams’s Democratic challenger, John Mannion, a moderate state senator.
Democratic campaign operatives say that shift — combined with Williams’s conservative policy record, especially on abortion — make the seat ripe for flipping next week.
“Unlike some of the other vulnerable Republicans in New York — who are desperately trying to hide their anti-abortion extremism in a desperate attempt to sound moderate — he will openly run as a far-right conservative,” a Democratic strategist familiar with House races said. “He’s unapologetic about it.”
The fundraising numbers also favor the Democrats. While outside groups have spent $4.2 million on behalf of Williams, they’ve spent $6.6 million favoring Mannion, according to OpenSecrets.
Nebraska-2: Don Bacon
Democrats have been trying unsuccessfully for years to pick off Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) in a moderate district centered around Omaha. This year, they think they have their best shot to date.
Not only did Biden carry the district by 6.3 percentage points in 2020, but independent polling shows that Tony Vargas, the Democratic state senator challenging Bacon, is performing better than he did two years ago, when he lost to the incumbent Republican by roughly 6,000 votes. In this year’s rematch, the analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan handicapper based at the University of Virginia, have rated the race “lean Democrat.”
On top of that, the Harris campaign has focused squarely on the district in the final weeks of the race, sending vice presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and his wife to stump in the region. That’s because Nebraska is one of only two states, along with Maine, to award presidential electoral votes by congressional district — in contrast to the winner-take-all system adopted by every other state.
House political operatives say the additional campaigning and spending at the presidential level marks a break from the 2016 and 2020 cycles — when Democratic contenders for the White House largely ignored the district — and will benefit Vargas downballot.
“This is the year,” the strategist said. “Unlike other years where many didn’t think the presidential race would come down to maybe one electoral vote, I think everyone realizes it’s a possibility and is acting accordingly. And as a consequence of that, you’re seeing a lot of Dem investments out there.”
Election handicappers say the ascension of Harris to the top of the ticket is also a factor, since it’s likely to boost turnout of Black and other minority voters in Omaha.
Outside spending has poured in to try to boost the Republican, with $10.7 million spent to either promote Bacon or oppose Vargas, according to OpenSecrets. On the other side, $6.8 million has been spent to support Vargas or oppose Bacon.
New York-4: Anthony D’Esposito
Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is another of the first-term New York Republicans at the top of the Democrats’ target list. Not only did Biden win the district by a whopping 14.5 percentage points in 2020, but D’Esposito has found himself embroiled in a late-campaign scandal after The New York Times reported in September he had an affair with a woman while engaged to his longtime fiancee, and then put the mistress on his congressional payroll.
Such episodes are not unheard of on Capitol Hill. But in a region of New York where many voters are still humiliated by the numerous ethics and legal troubles surrounding former GOP Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from Congress last year, Democrats think the scandal will spark a voter backlash that will only help propel D’Esposito’s challenger, Laura Gillen, into Congress.
“It is a factor,” the strategist said. “On Long Island, there is Santos scandal fatigue, and now D’Esposito is being dogged by his own scandals.”
The race is a rematch of the 2022 contest, when D’Esposito defeated Gillen, an attorney and former town supervisor, by almost 4 percentage points. This time around, she’ll have Harris at the top of the ticket — a dynamic that’s expected to increase turnout among Black and other minority voters on Long Island to the benefit of Democrats. Gillen is also better funded this cycle.
Democrats have flooded the district with outside spending, pouring $13 million into efforts opposing D’Esposito or supporting Gillen, according to OpenSecrets. Republicans have spent more than $5.7 million to oppose Gillen or boost the Republican congressman.
Oregon-5: Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the first GOP woman to represent Oregon in the House, has spent her two years on Capitol Hill fighting to build a reputation as a moderate voice within the heavily conservative GOP conference. Democrats, however, see her as particularly vulnerable on an issue of outsize prominence this cycle: abortion, where she’s wavered between vows to oppose any bans on federal funding for the procedure, and voting to do just that when legislation hit the floor.
Democrats are hoping that track record will repel voters in Oregon’s 5th District, which includes the suburbs of both Portland and Salem, while boosting the Democratic challenger, Janelle Bynum, an Oregon state House member.
Fueling their optimism, Biden won the district in 2020 by 8.9 points. Fueling it further, 2024 is the first presidential cycle since the conservative Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. With that in mind, Democratic operatives maintain the abortion issue will overwhelm the GOP efforts to tie Democrats, including Bynum, to Portland’s controversial liberal policies related to crime and immigration.
“This district is overwhelmingly, without question, pro-choice. And it is absolutely a huge deal in that part of the country — unequivocally so,” the strategist said. “You cannot get elected in Oregon unless you’re pro-choice. Which is why Chavez-DeRemer is trying so, so, so, so hard to cover up her anti-abortion views and her anti-abortion history and her anti-abortion votes.”
Outside spending is relatively even in the race, with $10.8 million spent to support Bynum or oppose Chavez-DeRemer, and $10.4 million to support the Republican or oppose Bynum, according to OpenSecrets.
California-13: John Duarte
To know that first-term Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) is one of the most vulnerable members of the House GOP in the cycle, look back to the 2022 election, which he won by just 564 votes.
Democrats believe Duarte will fare worse in a presidential year, particularly in a district where Biden had a nearly 11-point edge with voters in 2020.
Democrats have the advantage in outside spending, with $11.4 million spent to oppose Duarte or support Democratic nominee Adam Gray, and $8.3 million spent to support Duarte or oppose Gray, according to OpenSecrets.
Duarte has struck one of the most moderate tones in the House GOP on abortion, even saying he is “pro-choice” despite not supporting codifying protections for abortion. But his Democratic opponent, a former member of the California State Assembly, has heavily attacked Duarte on abortion rights.
Another major theme from Democrats is that in the agricultural district, Duarte has nothing to show on immigration reform — an issue that resonates loudly in a region where migrant workers are a crucial part of the economy.
Democrats also think the chaotic House GOP majority, which endured two drawn-out battles for Speaker and numerous intraparty fights, helped Duarte from getting meaningful wins.
Arizona-1: David Schweikert
Democrats have long been hoping to capture Rep. David Schweikert’s (R-Ariz.) district that includes the Phoenix suburb of Scottsdale, which has been trending blue. Biden won the district by 1.5 percentage points in 2020.
This year might be the one where it catches up to the unapologetically conservative Schweikert, who was first elected to Congress as part of the 2010 Tea Party wave.
Outside spending on the Democratic side has topped $11.6 million to either oppose Schweikert or support his Democratic challenger, Amish Shah, compared to more than $9.6 million to support the Republican or oppose Shah, according to OpenSecrets.
Democrats hope the extra efforts being put into Arizona due to the competitive open Senate seat, and the fact it is a swing state, will also make a difference in the House race, running up the score to help Shah, a physician and former state representative.
“The district is trending blue and fast growing with a lot of new residents,” the strategist said. “And eventually, all these new folks who are coming in who are blue-leaning are realizing, ‘Wait a minute, I don’t really want to vote for an anti-choice Republican who’s been there 14 years.'”
California-27: Mike Garcia
Second-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) represents a district north of Los Angeles that swung for Biden by 12.4 points in 2020, making him a prime target for Democrats.
His Democratic challenger, George Whitesides, was the first CEO of Virgin Galactic and was chief of staff of NASA during the Obama administration — a business-friendly resume that could blunt some of the GOP attacks on Biden and Democrats as the drivers of inflation.
The broader political environment within the Golden State could also work to Whitesides’s favor. Because California is solidly Democratic statewide, much of the grassroots and donor enthusiasm has been directed at the handful of competitive congressional races, the Democratic strategist said.
“There are no other competitive races other than these congressional seats,” the strategist said. “[Democratic Senate candidate Adam] Schiff doesn’t have a competitive seat. It’s California, it’s going to go Harris. Volunteers are looking at their local House race to engage, because that’s where the action is right now.”
Republicans have put about $11 million into outside spending to support Garcia or tear down Whitesides, while outside Democratic groups have spent $10.5 million to support the challenger or oppose Garcia, according to OpenSecrets.
