CIA Director William Burns warned of a dire outcome if the U.S. halted military aid to Ukraine, saying it would be a mistake of “historic proportions” in a Foreign Affairs magazine op-ed on Wednesday.
“I have spent much of the past two decades trying to understand the combustible combination of grievance, ambition, and insecurity that Russian President Vladimir Putin embodies.,” Burns wrote. “One thing I have learned is that it is always a mistake to underestimate his fixation on controlling Ukraine and its choices.”
Burns lauded the Ukrainian military and people for their nearly two-year defense against Russian invasion, adding that the Russian military has suffered “immense damage,” including over 300,000 casualties and massive hits to equipment stockpiles.
He characterized supporting Ukraine as the best way to weaken Putin and Russia as an American rival.
“At less than five percent of the U.S. defense budget, it is a relatively modest investment with significant geopolitical returns for the United States and notable returns for American industry,” he wrote. “Keeping the arms flowing will put Ukraine in a stronger position if an opportunity for serious negotiations emerges.”
“It offers a chance to ensure a long-term win for Ukraine and a strategic loss for Russia; Ukraine could safeguard its sovereignty and rebuild, while Russia would be left to deal with the enduring costs of Putin’s folly,” he continued. “For the United States to walk away from the conflict at this crucial moment and cut off support to Ukraine would be an own goal of historic proportions.”
Congress is split on future Ukraine funding, with many Republicans skeptical of continued military support for the country. President Biden has pushed hard for more aid, including working to negotiate a border security deal that Republican leaders demanded in exchange for foreign aid money.
The Ukrainian military has struggled in recent months on the frontline, with the conflict turning to a standstill after a late summer counteroffensive stalled out with little progress. The Pentagon warned last week that Ukraine is running out of ammunition, urging Congress to action, as European leaders make similar requests for American support.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said he will replace the country’s top military commander on Monday, The Washington Post reported, shaking up leadership in an attempt to regain momentum in the conflict.
Burns also noted that the CIA is continuing efforts to recruit Russian intelligence assets and emphasized the continued importance of intelligence gathering in modern conflict. Last week, the agency released a recruitment video targeted at Russian intelligence officers.
“As much as the world is changing, espionage remains an interplay between humans and technology,” he said. “There will continue to be secrets that only humans can collect and clandestine operations that only humans can conduct.”
He similarly warned about the threat China poses to the U.S., specifically that support for Ukraine bolsters against Chinese aggression towards Taiwan.
“For Xi, a man inclined to see the United States as a fading power, American leadership on Ukraine has surely come as a surprise,” Burns wrote. “The United States’ willingness to inflict and absorb economic pain to counter Putin’s aggression—and its ability to rally its allies to do the same—powerfully contradicted Beijing’s belief that America was in terminal decline.”
