The story that will not stop this season involves broken pitchers and the ramifications of having the wrong one or two go down, and/or reaching a tipping point in which too many arms are lost for too long a period at the wrong time.
Which brings us to the Astros.
Typically, I believe in organizations that prove year after year that they know how to successfully navigate the long season. The Astros have proven that. They basically have turned over nearly all of their controversial 2017 championship team while remaining elite (seven straight ALCS appearances).
So, to eliminate the Astros two weeks into the season would be knee-jerk, especially in an era of three wild cards. And I am not here to do that even as they entered Saturday with only a better record than the duet of awful — the Marlins and White Sox.
I would not bet against Houston figuring out how to steady itself and get right and we will blink a few times and the Astros will be over .500.
But it would be foolhardy to not have a level of concern, mainly based on the area in which the Astros are struggling.
Because if this were merely about Jose Abreu following a troubling first season with something that, at 37, looks far more problematic (.081, no extra-base hits and a drop in the lineup within his first 41 plate appearances). Or Alex Bregman, in his walk season, getting off so poorly (no homers, 87 OPS-plus). Or even so many important clubhouse figures — such as Michael Brantley, Martin Maldonado and Hector Neris — walking out the door while a new manager (Joe Espada) walks in, my worry about a potential down season would be far less.
But it is about pitching in a year when pitching attrition — always an issue — seems more front-burner than ever.
The Astros (4-11 to begin the weekend) had five starters on the IL — Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander. Verlander might return as early as the end of this week. But the Cooperstown-bound righty is 41 and on the IL for a second straight season because of a shoulder malady. Valdez’s elbow soreness might not keep him out for a sustained period, nevertheless, it is an elbow injury for a pitcher.
Meanwhile, Garcia, McCullers and Urquidy are months away from being in play. Ronel Blanco might be in the midst of a breakout, having already authored a no-hitter. But even with the no-hitter representing the only MLB complete game through two weeks of the 2024 season, Houston’s starters were averaging the fewest innings per start (4 ²/₃) in the AL.
The depth was challenged with Houston having to ask two starters to make their MLB debuts before their time. Blair Henley lasted one out and yielded five runs, and Spencer Arrighetti was clocked for seven runs in three innings. The Astros were hoping for sturdiness and better from Hunter Brown in his second full season in the rotation, and he has managed to last just 7 ²/₃ innings over three starts while surrendering 23 hits, seven walks and 15 runs.
The cascade is to an overworked bullpen that had the third-most appearances in the majors, a 5.31 ERA and the fourth-worst Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement.
It is a reminder that, yes, Astros owner Jim Crane made a late, out-of-nowhere strike to sign Josh Hader for five years at $95 million. But either injury or free agency have left Houston without Neris, Kendall Graveman, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek — a set-up quartet that gave the 2023 Astros 217 appearances over 207 ¹/₃ innings with a 2.78 ERA.
For a lot of last season, I thought the Yankees offense really can’t be this bad. But enough injuries and down seasons doomed them all the way to 82-80 and no playoff spot. And trying to fix pitching on the fly is difficult. Because to be broken now is such a bad harbinger for what the withering effect of the season will bring.
The Astros led the majors, having used 20 pitchers already, and were tied with four other clubs that had used a MLB-high seven starters. MLB teams used 863 pitchers last season, the third-most ever, but in the first full season in which teams were not allowed to have more than 13 pitchers on the roster (14 from Sept. 1 onward).
The top two were 2021 (909) and 2022 (871), and the top 11 seasons all-time are the past 11, amazingly including 2020 when there were just 60 games. This includes position players who pitched and also reflects a time when teams use the IL more liberally. Still, you can see the sheer volume in arms needed.
Teams last season used 383 starters, second most to the 396 of 2021. Even in an age in which teams deploy openers, again, you can see the volume in arms needed. And what one NL executive told me this spring resonates. He said he could live with the fill-in start, but what happens when “I have to cover even a month. That’s at least five starts. That’s a lot of starts for someone who, most of the time, I don’t actually want pitching for me. Now, what happens if I have two injuries like that?”
Last season, a MLB record 251 pitchers made at least five starts. Again, you see how you need to stack arms. Some teams have prospects they actually want promoted. Some teams have worked relievers into starting roles — and I wouldn’t be surprised after the success for Seth Lugo, Michael King, Zach Littell, Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo Lopez (to date) if we don’t see more. Some teams have injured starters they believe will return over time,
The Rays, for example, think Shane Baz and Taj Bradley are in line to join the rotation next month, and Drew Rasmusssen and Jeffrey Springs perhaps in July. The Rangers have Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle and Max Scherzer as perhaps gifts as the season progresses. And the Astros have pitchers too coming — beginning soon with Verlander, barring setbacks.
But Tampa Bay and Texas navigated these first few weeks better than Houston. It is a long season. And the Astros have shown over a sustained period a tough-mindedness and resourcefulness to problem-solve as the season progresses. But they have a rookie manager and less of the proven leadership, in uniform and out, that helped establish this run of success.
I wouldn’t bet against them. But it is concerning to be groping for pitching two weeks into a season that is setting up to maybe be the worst ever for impact pitching injuries.
