What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?
An Edmonton-Florida Stanley Cup Final may not pose the sexiest markets for casual American sports bettors, but Connor McDavid and his explosive supporting cast blended with the Panther’s wear-and-tear makes for the best action.
The object is the market’s answer to this paradox ahead of Saturday’s Game 1 faceoff: The Panthers are set as -130 favorites to hoist the Cup while the Oilers sit as modest +110 underdogs.
Edmonton was one of the most consistent puck-possession teams throughout the regular season — it’s only improved annually in that department with its opulence of premiere homegrown skill.
However, like any other year of McDavid’s career, questions around netminding and back-end depth drew concern for Cup potential.
The Stars were about as good of a litmus test as any. They presented balance, touted goaltending, and eliminated time and space proficiently. I was the first to say their makeup would have blanketed the Oilers’ flammability.
As we waited for the other shoe to drop, Edmonton retained heavy advantages at five-on-five flow and rose to the No. 1 rank on the power play and penalty kill in the playoffs.
This is all while McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard bolstered themselves to the top three point scorers in the playoffs.
They also capped the series by exhibiting responsibility in their own end, yielding four goals in the final three games.
Stuart Skinner delivered his best start of the postseason when the Oilers were outshot 34-10 in Game 6.
For all that performance merited, if you watched so much as 20 minutes of the Panthers-Rangers series, then you know the Oilers are flying 2,541 miles Southeast to play an entirely different beast.
The Panthers used their unrelenting forecheck to suffocate the Rangers’ top point scorers and win puck battles all over the ice.
If that series proved anything, it’s that character lineups will trump those with homogeneous scoring talent.
Florida’s defensive gaps in the neutral zone are considerably more aggressive than how Dallas operated.
Of course, McDavid’s transition game can muster magic against any structure, but it’s challenging to find clean entries with the limited space Florida offers.
If you can’t dump pucks in deep and run a successful forecheck, you’ll find yourself in turnover central.
You have to give credit where it’s due: This Panthers roster was constructed masterfully, from drafting Aleksander Barkov to making bargain signings in Gustav Forsling and Carter Verhaeghe, and landing trades for Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett.
It’s a group precisely designed for June with big-bodied center depth, a sound defensive core and Sergei Bobrovsky’s resurrected game in goal.
Bobrovsky is stopping 4.8 goals above expected, according to Moneypuck, ranking him fifth among playoff goalies.
Skinner can get hot in the opposing crease, but the Panthers just ran through Igor Shesterkin, Jeremy Swayman and Andrei Vasilevsky.
Where does Skinner’s career net performance fall on this list?
I can’t project officiating. Florida’s discipline led to their commanding the Rangers series as the better even-strength team — the Panthers took just 15 penalties in those six games.
Either way, the Oilers would need to make the most of their 37.3 percent power-play conversion with Florida’s depth overshadowing them in both five-on-five shot attempt differential and expected goals rate.
Betting on the NHL?
We saw this come to light when these two played in the regular season — even if it has been almost six months since.
Florida swept both games despite Edmonton’s leading in all-situation scoring chances, 126-121, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Oilers went 0-for-5 on the power play throughout both games.
The Oilers will get their chances, just as the Rangers did, and it’s tough to ever count out McDavid and Draisaitl.
Regardless, the Panthers return to the Cup Final as the more mature team with a coach that has 1,779 more games of NHL experience than his counterpart.
Hockey’s best player may be taking its biggest stage, but this is a team game — and balanced, stubborn and hard-nosed play along the bench prevails in the long run.
