“Monday Night Football” features a Lone Star State showdown between the Texans and Cowboys.
Dallas is reeling at 3-6 on the heels of a 34-6 home defeat at the hands of the Eagles. Houston, meanwhile, enters this game at 6-4 after a heartbreaking loss against the Lions.
The Texans are favored by seven points on the road, with a total priced at over/under 41.5 points.
In this prime-time matchup, where does the value lie? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.
When the Texans have the ball
After a lengthy absence, the Texans will finally have star wide receiver Nico Collins back in the fold on Monday night.
Collins is still PFF’s highest-graded wide receiver on the season, with a league-leading 3.5 yards per route run. He had 32 catches for 567 yards and three touchdowns in five games before suffering the hamstring injury.
The Texans offense has been inconsistent all year and ranks just 29th in early down EPA/play.
That’s not just due to Collins’ injury — they ranked 31st in early down EPA/play over the first five weeks with Collins healthy.
The biggest culprit has been a struggling offensive line — C.J. Stroud has been pressured at a 31.9 percent rate, the second-highest of all qualified quarterbacks.
Despite Micah Parsons only playing in five games this year, the Cowboys rank second in pressure rate. Parsons is now back in the lineup, and he wasted no time with five pressures and two sacks against the Eagles last week. The Cowboys have struggled to defend the run all year, ranking dead last in EPA/rush allowed, so we should see a heavy dose of Joe Mixon on Monday night.
When the Cowboys have the ball
Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury, leaving an already middling Cowboys offense in dire straits. Dallas has the 28th-ranked rushing offense by DVOA, and now they can’t rely on their passing game either — Cooper Rush has completed just 26 of 48 passes (54 percent) over the last two weeks for 160 yards, a brutal 3.3 YPA clip.
The Dallas offense won’t find life any easier on Monday against this elite Houston defense. DeMeco Ryans’ defense ranks second in DVOA this year. While star edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. remains out with an injury, this defense is loaded with talent at all three levels, ranking top five against the run and pass by DVOA.
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Final verdict
The Texans are priced as road favorites in this game, and in what should be a positive game script, I expect Joe Mixon to dominate with a massive workload against a porous Cowboys run defense.
That will lead to some offensive success, but it will also lead to the clock draining. When Stroud drops back to pass, he’ll likely face consistent pressure from Parsons and company.
Meanwhile, it’s difficult to envision the Cowboys finding much offensive success against an elite Texans defense with no Prescott.
While the total is priced low at 41.5, I can only look to the under in this game between two offenses that rank bottom five in early down EPA/play on the season.
Best Bet: Under 41.5 Points (-110, ESPN BET)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
