Before the season began, Utah was the favorite to win the Big 12 championship with 3-1 odds.
Instead, the Utes have suffered through an injury-ravaged season on their way to a 4-5 record. Saturday’s opponent, Colorado, has stormed to a 7-2 record and is the odds-on favorite to win the conference.
Utah will need to have a short memory and recover quickly from last week’s heartbreaking home loss in the Holy War against BYU.
Colorado opened as a 9.5-point favorite in this game, with the market backing the Buffs and pushing the spread to -11.5. It sat at 11 as of Friday afternoon.
Where does the value lie in this Big 12 matchup? Let’s dive in.
Utah vs . Colorado odds
(12 p.m. ET, FOX)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | +11 (-110) | +340 | o45.5 (-105) |
| Colorado | -11 (-110) | -450 | u45.5 (-115) |
Utah vs. Colorado prediction
When Utah has the ball
The Utes started their third quarterback of the year, Brandon Rose, last week, and he found success. However, Rose suffered a torn lisfranc ligament, ending his season.
Utah will now turn back to true freshman Isaac Wilson, who has had an up-and-down campaign with eight passing touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Wilson will be without wide receivers Money Parks and Mycah Pittman and tight end Brant Kuithe, who led the team with six touchdowns this year. Interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian will have an uphill battle to generate consistent production with this injury-ravaged group.
One of the season’s biggest surprises has been Colorado’s defense, as first-year defensive coordinator Robert Livingston’s havoc-minded 2-4-5 scheme has produced at a high level. The Buffaloes are in the top 30 in EPA/play allowed, defensive finishing drives and havoc rate.
When Colorado has the ball
Shedeur Sanders has had an excellent season under center for the Buffaloes, with 24 touchdowns to just six interceptions. He’s PFF’s fourth-highest-graded passer and ranks third in adjusted completion rate.
Travis Hunter leads the team with 69 catches for 856 yards and nine touchdowns as the current Heisman favorite.
Colorado’s offensive line has significantly improved from last year, and the Buffs rank 42nd in PFF’s pass-blocking grades.
Sanders has seen a noticeable decline in his production when the defense gets home, dropping from a 79.2% completion rate from a clean pocket to a 51.7% completion rate when under pressure.
Utah will attempt to pressure Sanders with the sixth-ranked defense in havoc rate.
While Utah’s offense has struggled to find consistency, its defense remains elite. Defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley’s group ranks top-20 in EPA/play and yards per play allowed.
According to Sports Info Solutions, the Utes have the top defense in the country in creating contested catches.
Betting on College Football?
Utah vs. Colorado pick
According to Action Network analyst Collin Wilson’s research, Sanders has middling numbers against man coverage and Cover 1, the Utes’ most frequent defensive schemes.
Utah’s defense is arguably the best the Buffaloes have seen all season and I expect it to travel well. The Utes need to win out to reach a bowl game.
The Buffaloes’ defense is one of the most improved units in college football and it should have success shutting down a Utah offense that has been destroyed by injuries this season.
With an early kickoff at 10 a.m. local time, I expect a slow start with both defenses finding success early in the game.
Best Bet: First Half Under 23.5 Points (-115, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
