Pollster Nate Silver said he believes there is “hidden good news” for Democrats in the 2024 election results, despite the party wondering where its messaging went so wrong.
In his newsletter, “Silver Bulletin,” Silver broke down his thoughts on the election and the major loss for Democrats.
Silver compared the party pointing fingers about Vice President Harris’s loss and about President Biden not stepping aside soon enough to the 2004 election.
After former President George W. Bush won his second term he faced the challenge of being an incumbent president, something Silver said President-elect Trump will face.
“And like Bush, Trump will probably have a challenging second term,” Silver said.
He continued, “Mind you, I wouldn’t count on this being a happy time for Democrats. Trump has a lot of unchecked power and a 6-3 Supreme Court majority,” Silver wrote. “But electorally speaking, these are the seeds out of which comebacks are made.”
Silver noted that the Democratic Party has some problems to overcome, including its messaging to people who “only halfway agree with them.” He said the party should put a “HELP WANTED” sign outside the Democratic National Convention headquarters.
Still, he said there is some “hidden good news” for Democrats out of the election, including lessening their “structural disadvantages” in the House, Senate and Electoral College.
Silver argued the seven key swing states are leaning toward Democratic control. Even if Arizona becomes challenging for the party to control, it’s 308 electoral votes that are “seriously set to compete” in the 2028 election.
In the Senate, Silver said the losses weren’t as bad as he originally thought on Election Night. He argues there’s a “path back” for Democrats in the upper chamber after it secured holds in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin.
The Hill/Decision Desk HQ called the House for Republicans, but it remains uncalled by Silver and other outlets and officials across the country. He argued the “writing is on the wall” because the GOP will be in the majority, but since it’s taking so long and the races have been so close all while Trump so decisively won the popular vote, it should be a good sign to Democrats. That means, Silver wrote, the left has a “relatively fair shake” in 2026 and 2028.
Silver noted that in many respects, “this was a fairly ordinary election.” While he said it’s uncertain what a second Trump term could bring, Democrats may have hope.
“What normally happens is the losing party rebounds — so there’s always the next cycle for Democrats to look forward to,” he closed.
