Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) will hold on to her seat in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, Decision Desk HQ projects.
The race was a rematch against Democrat Christina Bohannan, who lost out by around 7 points in the midterms. Since then, Miller-Meeks has faced criticism from conservatives in her own party, and Democrats were hopeful that Iowa’s new abortion ban would help drive blue turnout against her.
The Cook Political Report shifted the race just last month into “toss up” territory, while DDHQ’s forecast kept the seat as likely Republican in the run-up to Election Day.
Miller-Meeks notably won her first House election by just six votes back in 2020.
The win helps Republicans as they seek to hold onto their House majority – and comes on the heels of surprise polling that showed possible Democratic inroads in Iowa’s presidential race.
A Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey this weekend showed Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump across Iowa – which had been considered a safe red state after the former president won them by 9 and 8 points in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
