The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 9 of the NFL season.
SUNDAY
Colts +5.5 over VIKINGS: Joe Flacco is back in the fold for Indianapolis as Anthony Richardson takes a hard-earned rest. The team should respond very well to this move, which gives them the best chance to win. Minnesota is a tough place to play, but Flacco is up for the challenge. The league’s second-oldest quarterback has the seventh-best completion percentage against the blitz this year (65.7 percent).
GIANTS +4 over Commanders: Big Blue should’ve, would’ve, could’ve beaten the Commanders earlier in the season. Since then, Jayden Daniels has become a revelation en route to being the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, but is he healthy? He didn’t play all that great last week against the Bears thanks to a rib injury, and for all their faults, the Giants pass rush is the sixth-best in football, according to Pro Football Focus. Big Blue beatdown, Giants pull the upset.
FALCONS -3 over Cowboys: Jerry Jones has jokes, perhaps the main one being this team. With Micah Parsons out of the fold for most of the season, the Cowboys have the second-worst defense in the NFL according to PFF. The only team worse than them defensively is the Panthers. DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) hates the Dallas defense as well, ranking them 29th in the NFL. By no metric are the Cowboys better than the product they are putting on the field. Back the Falcons.
BENGALS -7 over Raiders: This line implies that the Bengals would be just four-point favorites against the Raiders on the road. That’s just not the reality. We’ve seen Cincinnati play with some of the league’s best teams thanks to the league’s best passing attack, according to PFF. Las Vegas has the 32nd-ranked passing defense. The Bengals run through Antonio Pierce’s group by jumping out to a big lead and never looking back.
BROWNS +1.5 over Chargers: There’s concern in Los Angeles. Their run defense looks terrible, for starters, after being among the best groups in the league. Cleveland is among the best run defenses in football, while the Chargers have allowed the second-most in their past three games. Nick Chubb could run wild for Cleveland while J.K. Dobbins gets stuffed, forcing Justin Herbert to throw to a bad receiving core.
Patriots +3.5 over TITANS: One of the worst games of the season will kick off this Sunday, and it will only be worse if Drake Maye is inactive. This line suggests he will be, as Jacoby Brissett is an immobile, extremely limited quarterback for the Patriots. Still, the Titans were just cashed for 52 points and destroyed on the ground. Rhamondre Stevenson has an opportunity to eat here regardless of who is getting snaps behind center.
PANTHERS +7.5 over Saints: Derek Carr is back for New Orleans, as Spencer Rattler looked like an XFL quarterback the past few weeks. New Orleans should be able to step up in a big way on offense, but their defense is abhorrent against the run. They’ve allowed 6.3 yards per carry against the run the past three weeks, by far the most in the NFL, and 5.2 yards per carry this season (second-most over the whole season). If Carolina can just get a lead, they could win outright by running it down this funnel of a defense.
Broncos +8.5 over RAVENS: Baltimore is a bad big favorite. They allow 11.6 points per fourth quarter, by far the most in the NFL. That’s a bad recipe for covering huge numbers late in games. You simply can’t trust this squad, especially against a solid defense that allows the fewest yards per play in the NFL (4.4).
Dolphins +6 over BILLS: Let’s not forget that the Dolphins were 2.5-point favorites in Week 2 in the game that Tua Tagovailoa went down with an injury. Now the line shifts 4.5-points with Tagovailoa firmly in the mix at quarterback? I don’t think so. Miami is nearly at full health and should utilize a strong rushing attack to get right this weekend.
Jaguars +7.5 over EAGLES: Let’s not overreact to the insane rout that the Eagles just put on the Bengals. Sure, this profiles as a similar matchup, but not every game is the same. Jacksonville’s offense is trending in the right direction, averaging 5.9 yards per play in the past three games, while the Bengals offense trends down at 5.1 yards per play. Trevor Lawrence is more than competent enough to keep it close, and there’s also a bit of a Doug Pederson revenge game factor to consider.
Bears +1 over CARDINALS: Bad coaching lost the Bears their Week 8 matchup with the Commanders. Though Matt Eberflus will still be coaching, those issues should be correctable against a horrid secondary. Caleb Williams should be able to take advantage of the fourth-worst passing defense in yards per pass attempt allowed.
PACKERS +2.5 over Lions: Jared Goff, outdoors, in the wind, where it’s expected to be on the colder side in Lambeau Field. Not interested in betting Goff at this number, especially with Jordan Love expected to be active this weekend. The Packers are also allowing the eighth-fewest yards per carry in football (4.3 yards per touch), so I don’t expect the Detroit line to just bowl over them to victory.
Rams -1.5 over SEAHAWKS: This offense looks like a shell of itself without DK Metcalf around to take the top off the defense. He is out for this weekend’s expected shoot-out, and perhaps the same can be said for Rams star receiver Puka Nacua, who is questionable. The difference here isn’t just two receivers, it’s also defense. Seattle has the worst defense, according to DVOA, and has allowed 6.5 yards per play in their past three games, the third-worst in football. The Rams are better defensively and are healthier, especially if Nacua suits up.
MONDAY
Buccaneers +9 over CHIEFS: Tampa Bay loves getting into shoot-outs, and the Chiefs aren’t exactly built that way. Kansas City has only beaten two teams by double digits this year, one of which being the terrible Saints. Oddsmakers are in love with the Chiefs defense, and rightly so, but the Buccaneers offense (6.8 yards per play, third-best) should keep this one within striking range thanks to a robust run attack.
Betting on the NFL?
Last week: 6-9
Season: 52-62-1.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
