The college football world will be treated to a fascinating matchup on Saturday, as No. 3 Penn State hosts No. 4 Ohio State in a Big Ten battle with epic implications.
Can James Franklin deliver a signature win after years of coming up short against the top teams in the conference?
Or can the Buckeyes keep their conference title hopes alive with a critical road victory?
Let’s dive into the matchup and see who has the edge.
Ohio State vs. Penn State odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Ohio State | -3.5 (-105) | -165 | Over 46.5 (-110) |
| Penn State | +3.5 (-115) | +140 | Under 46.5 (-110) |
Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction
(12 p.m. ET, FOX)
When Ohio State Has the Ball
Will Howard has been a dependable, stabilizing presence at quarterback for the Buckeyes, completing 73.9% of his passes and throwing 17 touchdowns to just four interceptions.
However, his efficiency has cratered in the rare instances where he’s been under pressure this season (18.9% of dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus) – his turnover-worthy play rate climbs to 7.7%, and he ranks 148th out of 155 qualified quarterbacks with a 28.4 PFF passing grade.
The Buckeyes’ offensive line is scrambling after left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending injury.
Zen Michalski replaced him as the starter last week, but he surrendered four pressures on 21 pass-blocking snaps before suffering an injury of his own.
It’s unclear who will start at left tackle this week, putting the offensive line at a disadvantage against a fierce Penn State pass rush led by Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton.
Ohio State’s run game also presented concerns last week against Nebraska.
Per Opta Analyst, the Buckeyes averaged a miserable 1.1 yards before contact and posted a 21.7% run success rate, which would rank dead last in the FBS this season.
TreyVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are elite talents.
Still, they can’t do much about an underperforming offensive line against a Penn State defense ranked third in success rate against the run.
When Penn State Has the Ball
After leaving the game with an injury last week against Wisconsin, Drew Allar returned to practice on Wednesday and didn’t appear limited.
Franklin will play things close to the vest with his starting quarterback’s status.
Still, sophomore Beau Pribula orchestrated the offense seamlessly last week and could offer a different flavor with more mobility than Allar.
Forcing the Buckeyes to prepare for both quarterbacks can’t hurt.
More importantly, this could be the week that the Andy Kotelnicki playbook gets fully unleashed.
The former Kansas offensive coordinator has helped Penn State climb from 93rd nationally in yards per play to 10th this year – the Lions’ most yards per play in 30 years.
He’s an innovative play-caller who likely has a handful of plays earmarked for this game specifically.
Ohio State’s defense is full of star names but has faltered against the run multiple times.
In games against Oregon and Nebraska, the Buckeyes posted a 0th-percentile defensive run stuff rate, allowing those teams’ running backs to average over 4.5 YPC.
Penn State has the fifth-best run game in the country by success rate, and the duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen should make their presence felt.
Ohio State vs. Penn State pick
Penn State hasn’t defeated Ohio State outright since 2016, and the Buckeyes are 11-1 against the Nittany Lions since 2012.
However, Ryan Day has consistently struggled to cover in these big-time matchups.
According to Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams, the Buckeyes are 6-14-1 ATS (30%) against top-ten teams since 2018.
Betting on College Football?
The Nittany Lions are the more consistent team in the trenches right now, which will make all the difference in this high-profile matchup.
Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnciki also provides a degree of chaos to the game, and his Swiss Army knife tight end, Tyler Warren, could be the ultimate X-factor.
While we won’t know Allar’s status until Saturday, I’m still backing Penn State in this matchup, catching over the key number of 3.
I fancy the Nittany Lions to win this game outright, but I’ll happily take the points against a Buckeyes team that has shown real warts in recent weeks. I’d also recommend grabbing a Penn State Big Ten ticket at +400 odds or better – they have an inside track to the conference title game with a win this weekend.
Pick: Penn State +3.5 (-115, bet365) | Play to +3 (-110)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
