UFC Vegas 92 begins at the APEX center in Las Vegas with 12 lower level fights to choose from for our betting pleasure.
The first fists will be thrown at 4 p.m. ET with the prelim card getting us started followed by the main card at 7 p.m. ET and the entire card will be broadcast on ESPN+.
Last week continued with a solid showing of .68 units of profit, our third straight week of bets that ended in the black.
You’ll notice many more long shots this week and fewer outright sides on this weekend’s betting card.
High risk high reward, keep your unit sizes on the smaller side for some of the bigger long shots.
As far as entertainment goes, this UFC APEX card is far from the best we’ve seen, but fights are fights and there’s money to be made on obscure fighters.
MMA fans can expect much more exciting cards to come, with UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier on June 1st.
UFC Fight Night predictions
Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy
Could we be looking at another veteran lesson in the UFC?
Edson Barboza comes in as a decent-sized underdog this weekend against fellow striker Lerone Murphy in what is likely to be a competitive bout.
It is possible that Barboza could be benefitting from less USADA testing recently, he looks much more shredded than ever at age 38.
Barboza has excellent kicks, perhaps the best in the UFC, while Murphy is just a kickboxer and could see his lead legs get chopped up.
If Murphy can’t control leg kicks, he will be in trouble.
Murphy is solid but to the decision price here at +500 seems way too wide considering Murphy fights on thin margins with multiple split-decisions in his career.
This fight will be a close to decision so you should be happy to grab the +500 on Barboza by decision and hope to be on the right side of the scorecards.
PICK: Barboza by decision (+500, BetRivers)
Khaos Williams vs. Carlston Harris
Coming in as the -130 favorite is Khaos Williams who matches up with Carlston Harris on Saturday.
Harris will have a clear gameplan of getting Williams to the ground, which might be tough considering his opponent lives true to his first name of Khaos.
Williams hits extremely hard, and Harris has been knocked out twice in his career, all prior to the UFC.
It’s possible that Harris has improved to the point that he can get fights to the mat consistently without much issue.
But that’s easier said than done with Williams’ 80 percent take-down defense.
Williams gets it done with a knockout win.
PICK: Williams by KO/TKO (+140, Caesars)
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UFC Fight Night main card picks
- Edson Barboza (+130) vs. Lerone Murphy: Barboza by decision (+500, BetRivers)
- Khaos Willaims (-130) vs. Carlston Harris: Williams wins by KO/TKO (+140, Caesars)
- Themba Horimbo (-148) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj: Brahimai by submission in round 3 (16/1, FanDuel)
- Adrian Yanez (-425) vs. Vinicius Salvador: Yanez wins in round 3 (+750, FanDuel)
- Luana Pinheiro (+124) vs. Angela Hill: Fight to be won by split/majority decision (+250, DraftKings)
- Victor Martinez (+360) vs. Tom Nolan: Nolan by KO/TKO in rounds two or three (+290, FanDuel)
- Sumar Sy (-455) vs. Tuco Tokkos: Pass
- Tamires Vidal (+270) vs. Melissa Gatto: Pass
- Abus Magomedov (-270) vs. Warlley Alves: Fight won’t start round (-210, BetMGM)
- Piera Rodriguez (-215) vs. Ariana Carnelossi: Rodriguez by decision (+120, ESPN BET)
- Alatengheili (+124) vs. Kleydson Rodrigues: Rodrigues by KO (+500, Bet365)
- Vanessa Demopoulos (+300) vs. Emily Ducote: Pass, could go Ducote by KO/TKO +700.
