The Cavaliers pulled off a shocking road upset over the Celtics in Game 2 as 13.5-point underdogs.
Cleveland held Boston to 94 points, the Celtics’ second-lowest total of the season.
As the series shifts locations, can the Celtics bounce back?
Let’s take a look at Saturday’s matchup.
Celtics vs. Cavaliers odds
Celtics analysis
When the Celtics’ 3-point shots aren’t falling, it gets ugly fast. Boston shot 8-of-35 from deep in Game 2, hitting 22.9% of their long-range looks.
Their offense stagnated in the second half, as they scored 40 points after the break. Derrick White and Jrue Holiday combined for just 14 points on 5-18 shooting.
The team’s inability to adjust when threes aren’t falling is a concern, but I expect them to shoot much better moving forward.
The Celtics took 42.5 3-pointers per game in the regular season, the most in the NBA, and made 38.8% of them, the second-best clip in the league.
White, Holiday, and Brown combined to shoot 1-of-16 from 3, a dreadful 6% clip. Massive positive regression should be expected for a group of players who all shot 35% or better from deep during the regular season.
One positive from Game 2 was the continued emergence of Payton Pritchard as a reliable role player. He has scored 13+ points in both games against Cleveland, shooting 50% overall for the series.
Pritchard’s bench production will continue to be pivotal for Boston.
Cavaliers analysis
The Cavs got their first road win of the postseason on Thursday, and J.B. Bickerstaff praised his team, saying, “when we defend the way we defended, and our shots fall, what we do travels, and we can win anywhere.”
Evan Mobley was phenomenal in Game 2, scoring 21 points, ten rebounds, and five assists. His net rating was +35, and he’s the youngest Cavaliers player since LeBron James with a 20/10/5 playoff game.
Meanwhile, Donovan Mitchell is averaging 37.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists over his last four games on 51% shooting. He played the entire second half in Game 2. Caris LeVert chipped in 21 points off the bench, rounding out an impressive effort where six players scored in double figures for Cleveland.
The potential return of Jarrett Allen is one factor to watch on Saturday, but I continue to believe he’s far away from playing through his painful rib ailment. They’re calling it a right rib contusion, but given the lengthy absence, it’s fair to wonder if the ribs are actually broken.
Given the chemistry the team has shown in his absence, I’d actually consider Allen’s return to be a negative at this point. Having Mobley and Allen on the floor simultaneously produces challenges for the team’s offensive spacing, as well.
Celtics vs. Cavaliers prediction & pick
The Cavaliers deserve plenty of credit for their performance in Game 2, but the odds heavily favor the Celtics in Game 3. They’re favored by 7.5 points on the road, and I’ll back them in this spot that should have their full attention.
Betting on the NBA?
Regardless of whether or not Allen plays on Saturday, I expect positive regression for Boston and negative regression for Cleveland. In the first round, the Celtics responded to their Game 2 home loss to the Heat with a 20-point road win in Game 3.
I expect a similar pattern here, and the Celtics’ five playoff wins have come by an average of 22.6 points. Boston is 14-9-2 (60.9%) as a road favorite of 6+ points this season, including 2-0 in the playoffs, so I’ll back them here.
