Darlington Raceway has produced a few surprise winners over the last 10-15 years. Regan Smith scored his only Cup Series victory at Darlington in 2011, while Erik Jones had a pair of unexpected wins at the track.
The last two Spring races at Darlington have seen a big wreck lead to surprise finishes.
The winner wasn’t unexpected, but we could see unusual results in the placement market.
Alex Bowman came close to a top-five (seventh) for my longshot last week, while Ross Chastain showed early top-three speed before fading.
Let’s see how I’m attacking the longshot market for the Goodyear 400 at Darlington.
NASCAR Cup Series: Top odds for Goodyear 400
| Driver | Winner | Top 3 | Top 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +380 | +110 | -200 |
| Denny Hamlin | +450 | +115 | -190 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +700 | +175 | -135 |
| William Byron | +750 | +200 | -110 |
| Tyler Reddick | +900 | +200 | -105 |
Goodyear 400 long shot picks
To win: Joey Logano (+2500, FanDuel)
It’s been a rough season for the Ford manufacturer, including two-time Cup Series Champion Joey Logano, placing 17th in the standings with one top-five in 12 races.
Despite the rough start, Logano is always a threat to win. His recent numbers at Darlington suggest we could see a strong performance.
He led a race-high 107 laps en route to winning the 2022 Spring race at Darlington. He followed it up with a fourth-place finish in the playoff race.
His one great performance this season came at Richmond. Darlington presents similar characteristics, which could result in Logano contending for another victory.
Kyle Busch top-3 finish (+500, bet365)
Kyle Busch is starting to get back on track after a rough six-race stretch. He enters Sunday’s race with three top-10 finishes in his last four races.
Busch has been one of the drivers to beat at Darlington in the Next-Gen era. Over the last four Darlington races, he ranks second in speed rating. That includes top-five speed in two races.
Busch had the car to beat in the ‘22 playoff race, leading a race-high 155 laps. He suffered an engine issue while leading with under 25 laps to go.
His recent speed gives me confidence for Darlington. Busch could sneak into contention with a top-three finish.
Noah Gragson top-5 finish (+800, bet365)
Noah Gragson has been one of the biggest surprises of the season. There were little expectations for Gragson, but he already has five top-10 finishes – including three straight entering Sunday.
He only has one Cup Series start at the track, but this selection concerns his success in the Xfinity Series.
Gragson has two wins and five top-five finishes at Darlington in the Xfinity Series. The competition is much tougher in the Cup Series, but Gragson has proved that he can compete with the best.
He knows how to get around Darlington and produce a great finish. We’re getting an excellent price for Gragson to score a top-five finish.
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Justin Haley top-10 finish (+2500, bet365)
I rarely take a +2500 longshot in the placement market, but Justin Haley has a real chance to score a top-10 finish.
Haley hasn’t done much in his first season with Rick Ware Racing, scoring two top-20 finishes in 12 races. However, he has produced strong finishes at Darlington.
It took a few big wrecks, but Haley has finished top 10 in the last two Darlington Spring races. He’ll likely need some help, but he’s put himself in a position to capitalize on others’ mistakes.
Haley’s best performance of 2024 came at Bristol, another high-wear track. He could get himself to the top 10 if he shows the speed.
