Immediately following President Biden’s State of the Union address in March, the incumbent president saw a surge in the polls which seemed poised to revive his campaign and reenergize the Democratic Party.
Now, just two months later, it increasingly appears that Biden’s quiet comeback is running out of steam.
Through mid-April, Biden’s surge persisted, creating the illusion that Biden had finally found his stride and would ride that momentum into the election. However, polls released this week paint a bleak picture.
Indeed, a new national poll from CNN shows former President Donald Trump leading President Biden by 6 points in a head-to-head horserace, 49 percent to 43 percent. Worse, just one-third (34 percent) of voters approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, a tried and true metric for how Americans will likely vote.
Put another way, if consumer sentiment is any indication of Biden’s electoral fate, Democrats have reason to worry. In fact, 65 percent of registered voters say the economy is “extremely important” to them. And, in analyzing how this group of economic-centric voters plan to cast their ballots, Biden is projected to lose by over 30 points, 62 percent to 30 percent.
In that same vein, state-level polling from Fox News shows Trump is back in the driver’s seat, with his New York City trial doing little to dent his numbers. The poll shows Trump leading Biden in the seven key swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — by anywhere from 1 to 5 points, making his path to victory slimmer by the day.
Moreover, while pluralities of voters in each state agree that the Trump “hush money” trial is “appropriate” or fair, per Fox News, most voters, especially Republicans, say a guilty verdict would have no impact on their willingness to vote for Trump, and in many cases, would increase their likelihood to vote for him.
While these are just two polls, it’s clear that Trump is back in the lead, even if he’s been found in contempt and threatened with jail time. In truth, these polls reveal a trend that should alarm the Biden campaign, which surely had felt the momentum turning in their favor after the State of the Union.
From February through mid-April, polls showed Biden, if still trailing Trump, trending in the right direction. In fact, there was a point in which Biden was leading Trump in 18 national polls during that time.
Further, Biden was racking up a series of wins, including improving economic sentiment, a key metric the administration was desperately trying to move the needle on. In addition, the initial news fodder surrounding Trump, who had just begun spending most of his time in the courtroom rather than on the campaign trail, consumed the media’s attention.
While Trump was stuck in court, Biden pulled in massive donations to pad his cash lead over his opponent. At one Radio City fundraiser where Biden was joined by former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, the Biden campaign raised more than $25 million — a record.
For the GOP, Republican infighting was — and still is — on full display in the House, damaging the credibility of the entire party. On Wednesday, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-Ga.) announced she would force a vote to oust Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) who relied on Democratic support to pass a series of foreign aid bills last week. Worse, a scandal plagued the GOP’s biggest fundraising arm, the Republican National Committee, during this time, causing mass layoffs and leadership changes.
Yet, despite all this momentum, Biden’s surge appears to have stalled.
As I wrote in these pages one month ago, Biden’s biggest obstacle to reelection is the overall perception that he is bad for the economy and people’s personal financial situation. And, as inflation proves stubborn, wars in Europe and the Middle East show no sign of slowing down, American college campuses are swarmed with protests against Israel and the southern border remains open, Biden has done little to change people’s perceptions.
However, Biden’s marks on all three issues — the economy, foreign policy, and immigration — are markedly down since entering office. In January 2020, 61 percent approved of Biden’s handling of the economy, 60 percent approved of his handling of foreign affairs, and 57 percent approved of his handling of immigration, per Harvard/Harris.
Today, Biden’s approval rating across all three metrics is underwater — 42 percent on the economy, 42 percent on foreign affairs and 38 percent on immigration — according to the most recent Harvard/Harris poll released last week.
Whether due to inflation driving economic pessimism, the still-porous southern border keeping immigration at the top of voters’ minds, or the growing chaos on college campuses, Biden appears to be leaping from one crisis to the next, seemingly unable to effectively manage or lead the country.
To be clear, this is not to make it seem like the election is in the bag for Trump. The former president faces a mountain of legal problems, and the GOP primary results show that Nikki Haley is still attracting double-digit support despite dropping out of the race.
Similarly, there are legitimate questions of whether progressives, whose anger at Biden over his support for Israel has boiled over and threatens to cause mayhem at the Democratic National Convention this summer, actually withhold their votes when faced with a Trump presidency.
That being said, after a brief period where it looked like Biden had finally found his groove, his numbers are once again dropping while Trump’s rise, and that is surely a worrying sign for Democrats as November rapidly approaches.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. He served as an adviser to President Clinton and the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”
