Ukraine is outmanned, outgunned and outmaneuvered — should they give up? 

Things aren’t looking good for Ukraine. 

Russian military manpower is estimated to be at 69,432,472 combatants, while Ukraine can muster 22,806,303 — a ratio of about three to one However, Russia has mainly been on attack since 2023, a scenario where casualties are expected to be greater. Hence, Russia has a higher number of casualties, at an estimated 50,000 to 31,000. On these figures alone, Russia will eventually triumph.  

But even in the age of AI algorithms, data alone does not determine the outcome. There are always outliers. 

One outlier that favors Russia is their ability to pay for mercenaries. They are using their vast oil and mineral wealth to hire mercenaries from Pakistan, India and North Korea. The BBC created a useful chart that shows the increasing use of mercenaries, and conscripts from the poor parts of Russia, mainly Muslims and Siberians. Many of them are given as few as two weeks training and sent to die in headlong charges against the Ukrainian drones and artillery — often before they can be paid. On the other hand, if Ukraine can counterattack, the mercenaries are more likely than Russian regulars to surrender.  

Another outlier is the Ukrainian ability to affect Russian confidence by attacking Russian Navy ships and Air Force bases and planes with long-distance ATACM missiles and drones. The Air Force and naval casualties mainly come from Putin’s power bases in St. Petersburg and Moscow. Although air superiority has not been a great factor in the war to date, due to both sides possessing the very effective S300 ground-to-air missiles, the arrival of F-16 fighter jets into the Ukrainian Air Force this summer will at least give them parity.  

With Russia going into war production mode, the Ukrainians are clearly outgunned. Russia now spends 7.5 percent of its GDP on manufacturing military equipment. It can now produce approximately 4 million shells, 1,500 tanks, and 3,000 armored vehicles per year. Russian munition workers work compulsory six-day weeks and 12-hour shifts. They are also sourcing military equipment, such as trucks, shells, missiles and drones, from China, North Korea and Iran.  

Without American assistance, which has been slow in coming, Ukraine cannot compete. Nevertheless, after the U.S. Congress finally passed a $61 billion military aid package, the equipment can be fast-tracked to Ukraine. Many U.S. arms manufacturers continued to assemble and pack military equipment like shells, despite the long congressional delay. They are ready to ship immediately.  

NATO countries that were hesitant in the recent past have been more proactive. Not surprisingly, countries like Poland and the Czech Republic, who have unpleasant memories of Soviet domination, are the most conspicuous.  

Another outlier is that the Western missiles are more accurate, allowing Ukraine to target expensive and sophisticated Russian equipment long distances behind Russian lines. In addition, Russia needs access to critical minerals and technical subcomponents for their weapons. It is estimated that over 2,000 foreign-made electronic components are contained in Russian Sukhoi fighter jets, primarily originating from the U.S. and Japan. The Kinzhal missile has 78 parts made in America. Russia relies on countries like China to source them on their behalf. 

Overall, Ukraine have been out-maneuvered as well. They were ill-prepared for Russia’s massive and costly counter-offensives, and their defense lines are now at risk of falling.  

Russia has improved their command structures and logistics. They have very good jamming systems that block Ukrainian drone signals. Most Russian tanks are now equipped with electronic jammers. Also, Russia have quickly constructed 60 kilometers of new railway tracks  across the south, connecting Rostov-on-Don to Crimea. This improves their ability to quickly move troops and material.  

Ukraine has used their long-range weapons to accurately damage Russian oil refineries and command centers. In response, Russia attacked Ukraine’s electricity substations, causing power outages nationwide. In the propaganda war of public morale, Russia arguably has the upper hand. 

Russia is on the offensive, attacking and advancing across north-eastern frontlines, while Ukraine has adopted defensive positions. Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv — only 30 kilometers from the Russian border — has been pummeled. However, Ukraine is frustrating the Russians by carrying out in-depth commando raids across the Dnipro River. They have wrecked numerous expensive Russian radar and missile systems in nearby Crimea, and destroyed 25 percent of the Crimean Black Sea fleet, sending it scurrying across the sea to distant Novorossyisk.   

Overall, Russia has significant logistical and strategic advantage. Most, but not all, outliers favor Russia. So, should Ukraine give up? If your country was invaded, but was still in the fight, would you? 

Patrick Drennan is a journalist based in New Zealand, with a degree in American history and economics.