Presidents’ Trophy plus first-round sweep equals …
… the New York Rangers being sizable underdogs in the second round of the NHL playoffs.
The oddsmakers continue to be unimpressed with the Broadway Blueshirts. BetMGM‘s opening odds list them as +120 ‘dogs (bet $100 to win $120 or any amount in that proportion) against the Carolina Hurricanes, who advanced by defeating the Islanders, 6-3, in Game 5 on Tuesday night in Raleigh, N.C.
The Hurricanes are offered at -140 (bet $140 to win $100). Carolina’s odds represent a 58.33 percent probability of winning the best-of-seven series.
Other legal sportsbooks opened the series betting line in the same neighborhood. DraftKings, is in agreement with BetMGM’s line, the Hurricanes opened -140 to the Rangers +120.
FanDuel saw a bigger difference between the teams, listing Carolina at -152 and the Rangers at +126, but that has climbed down a bit to the Rangers at +122.
The futures markets are no more optimistic about the Rangers’ chances.
They are currently the fifth-favorites to win the Stanley Cup at +650.
The Hurricanes are the favorites to hoist the Cup at +425 followed by the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers at +500 and Colorado Avalanche at +600.
Why are the Rangers the underdogs to the Hurricanes despite owning the higher seed and home-ice advantage in the series?
The answer lies in the advanced stats.
The big one the linesmakers are looking at is a team’s expected goal percentage (XG%) at 5 on 5.
The Hurricanes ranked second in the NHL in the regular season at 55.97%, according to moneypuck.com, while the Rangers resided in 21st place.
The net result was that Carolina enjoyed a +23 goal differential at 5 on 5, while the Rangers finished +1.
In a recent article in The Post, Michael Leboff of Action Network explained that analytics, while important, do not always tell the whole story.
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“While most teams in the NHL would struggle to consistently get results with that kind of statistical profile, the Rangers have established themselves as an outlier over a three-season sample,” Leboff wrote. “The Blueshirts have an abundance of supremely talented playmakers, so the chances they do create are usually of high quality, and their goaltenders help cover up most of their defensive flaws.”
