What’s wrong with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?
That’s been the constant debate among Blue Jays media the last two seasons, as the 2021 Silver Slugger’s MLB progression has moved in reverse.
He’s slugged just .351 this season, and is a major reason why Toronto has underachieved offensively.
The Blue Jays take on the Royals on Tuesday night in Toronto in a game where Guerrero has a chance to get on track.
Royals vs. Blue Jays odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | +114 | +1.5 (-192) | o7.5 (-115) |
| Blue Jays | -135 | -1.5 (+160) | u7.5 (-105) |
Royals vs. Blue Jays prediction
Guerrero’s underlying results have consistently stated that he is due for positive regression.
Those numbers might not accurately reflect his propensity to pound ground balls into the dirt.
Similar contact with a slightly improved swing path is going to lead to good results though, and he’s shown signs recently of breaking out.
Guerrero has five hits in his last 12 at-bats, including two doubles. On Monday, he put four balls in play from just five swings, with an average exit velocity of 102, leading to two hits.
On Tuesday, he gets a tough matchup versus Cole Ragans, who owns some of the best stuff in the American League.
When batters are able to get balls in-play versus Ragans, he’s getting hit somewhat hard. He’s been hard-hit 38.8% of the time, and allowed a slug rate of .370.
With a .738 OPS versus lefties and a .458 on-base percentage, this is not as tough of a matchup for Guerrero as it initially seems, and his props are priced far better than usual.
He has consistently hit fastballs effectively, a strength that could help him achieve success versus Ragans, who’s greatest assets are his four-seamer and cutter.
Guerrero has put an MLB-high 211 balls in play off fastballs with an exit velocity of 100 mph or greater since 2022.
He just saw Ragans last week, which should also work in his favor in this matchup.
The Royals bullpen has been a concern, particularly due to a lack of depth. They own the league’s second-worst xFIP of 4.75.
If Ragans struggles early, look for Guerrero and the Jays to tack on versus weaker Royals relievers.
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Royals vs. Blue Jays pick
Due to the struggles of Guerrero thus far, as well as the quality of Ragans, he is priced as long as +140 (Bet365) to record two total bases in Tuesday night’s contest.
That is a number which holds value, and this is a good time to target a potential upswing from Guerrero.
