President Biden and former President Trump are tied in the latest national polling average of a hypothetical three-way general election race that includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).
Biden and Trump are tied at 41.3 percent, with Kennedy following at 7.7 percent, based on DDHQ’s average of 130 polls that ask respondents about a hypothetical three-way matchup in the 2024 general election.
Trump has consistently led Biden in the three-way hypothetical race since November 8, when Biden briefly overtook Trump, 39.3 percent to 39.1 percent. In December and into January, Trump maintained a statistically significant lead over Biden, but Biden began gaining on Trump early last month.
“Since President Biden gave his State of Union speech in early March, we have seen him close the gap nationally to be tied with former President Trump for the first time since November 2023,” DDHQ’s Scott Tranter said.
The narrowing in the polls, Tranter said, “is a foreshadowing of the intense campaigning and volatility in the polling we’ll experience as we close in on November’s election.”
In recent days, several polls added to DDHQ’s national polling average have pointed to a very close race. The recent Economist/YouGov poll showed Trump and Biden tied with 43 percent, and Kennedy with 3 percent. The recent Quinnipiac University poll also had them tied at 37 percent, with Kennedy at 16 percent support.
Other polls in recent days have been split. The Marist College poll showed Biden leading by five points, and the Emerson College poll showed Trump leading by four points.
The latest development in the national polling average of a hypothetical three-way race will come as welcome news to Biden’s campaign, which has doubled down on efforts to prevent Kennedy from hindering the president’s reelection amid concerns about the independent candidate’s momentum. Many Democrats worry that Kennedy’s bid could do more harm to Biden’s reelection chances than to Trump’s.
In hypothetical head-to-head matchups between the two presidents, Biden has similarly seen his numbers improve. Last Wednesday, Biden and Trump tied at 45.1 percent, based on DDHQ’s average of polls. Now, Trump leads Biden by 0.3 percentage points, well within most polls’ margins of error.
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