Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) is potentially staring down his closest race yet, against Republican David McCormick, in what will be one of the pivotal Senate contests in November.
In Tuesday’s primary, McCormick is set to officially become the GOP nominee for the critical seat, setting up a battle with Casey, who is running for his fourth Senate term.
The former hedge fund CEO is the candidate whom the Republican Party wanted to oppose Casey, after nominating disappointing general election candidates two years ago.
“It’s an uphill climb, but if anybody can do it, [Republicans] have nominated the right person for it, which is McCormick,” said Republican strategist Samuel Chen. “This is probably the best shot that Republicans in Pennsylvania will have at unseating Bob Casey.”
McCormick held multiple roles in the George W. Bush administration, including deputy national security adviser and undersecretary of the Treasury for international affairs. He later served as CEO of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates before stepping down to run for an open Senate seat in Pennsylvania in 2022.
He lost the Republican nomination that year to Mehmet Oz by less than 1,000 votes — and Oz lost the general election to now-Sen. John Fetterman (D). But McCormick has coalesced GOP support behind his candidacy this year and is unopposed for the nomination. He has the backing of former President Trump, the state party and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, along with other Republicans.
Pennsylvania-based experts said McCormick could pose the most formidable challenge to Casey in his Senate career after a few relatively easy campaigns.
Veteran Republican political consultant Christopher Nicholas said Casey’s past general election races didn’t get close as Election Day approached, with him up for election “at the right times” in years where Democrats performed well.
Casey was first elected to the Senate in 2006, a midterm election that saw a blue wave as part of backlash to the Bush administration. He was reelected in 2012, when then-President Obama won reelection and comfortably carried Pennsylvania, and in 2018, during midterm backlash to the Trump administration.
He won by comfortable margins each time, by double digits in 2006 and 2018.
But Nicholas said the political environment in 2024 isn’t obviously tiled in favor of one party, giving him a more competitive race.
“2024 so far is neither the best for Republicans or Democrats, so seems like it’s just kind of more even,” he said.
At the same time, Casey has several strengths as a candidate that have served him well in past years.
Members of both parties acknowledged that Casey is a personally likeable senator whose family is an institution in Pennsylvania.
Casey’s father, Bob Casey Sr., was a two-term governor in the 1980s and 1990s.
“He’s won statewide more than anyone else in the state has that’s currently in office. His father was the governor of Pennsylvania, and name recognition goes a long way in this state,” Chen said.
“He hasn’t done anything controversial. He hasn’t really rocked the boat in any way. And so there’s really not a whole lot to point out and say, ‘Hey, this was a disaster,’ or ‘He’s too extreme on this issue.’ There’s really no gaffes so to speak in his career,” he added.
But Chen, who served as an aide to former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), said McCormick could be effective if he can successfully brand Casey as a “career politician” who has mostly voted in line with President Biden’s position.
Democratic strategist Daniel Fee said people talk about Casey not being “flashy,” but Pennsylvania has a history of not choosing “big personalities” except for Fetterman. He pointed to Toomey and former Sen. Arlen Spector.
McCormick campaign communications director Elizabeth Gregory said in a statement that McCormick is “laser focused” on uniting the party against Casey. She said Casey has voted almost entirely with Biden’s “failing agenda” that has fueled the situation at the southern border, record inflation and harmful energy regulations.
“Pennsylvanians from across the commonwealth are joining Dave’s movement to send a 7th-generation Pennsylvanian, combat veteran, and PA job creator to the Senate to deliver new leadership and fresh ideas,” she said.
Polling has shown that Casey appears to have an early advantage. He led in a Franklin & Marshall College poll released this month by 7 points and in an Emerson College poll released last month by 4 points.
Nicholas noted that incumbents often have an advantage at this point in the race.
The Hill reached out to the Casey and McCormick campaigns for comment.
Fee said Democrats have overall had strong statewide performances in recent years, since Trump flipped the state as part of his 2016 victory. The only two Republicans in statewide office are the state treasurer and auditor general.
Since 2016, Pennsylvania Democrats have won races for governor and Senate twice each, and for state attorney general. The party also won control of the state House in 2022 for the first time in more than a decade.
“[Democrats have] had a good couple of years in Pennsylvania since Trump was elected,” Fee said.
Still, Republicans have been making gains in voter registration in recent years, while the number of Democrats has declined in many counties.
Democrats and Republicans said they expect both candidates to be well-funded in a close and intense race.
In one sign of how charged the race could be, McCormick on Thursday preemptively went after a New York Times reporter ahead of the release of a story about McCormick’s background. The story, which was published Friday, reported that McCormick made misleading statements about his upbringing, including his statement that he grew up on a farm.
McCormick accused the outlet of “cherry-picking and distorting” what he has said about his upbringing, noting that he has said his family owned a farm and he had summer jobs baling hay and trimming Christmas trees.
McCormick has also faced criticism from opponents who accuse him of being a “carpetbagger” for owning a home in Connecticut that he had listed as his primary address. The Associated Press had reported that McCormick’s vote in the 2022 Republican primaries was his first in Pennsylvania in 16 years.
McCormick’s campaign has previously responded by noting that his family has lived in Pennsylvania “for generations” and that he currently lives in Pittsburgh.
Republican strategist Josh Novotney said he ultimately expects the issues that decide the race will be similar to those of two years ago, but especially immigration, which, along with crime, has risen to be a top issue for Republican voters.
He said abortion will also play a key role, as it did two years ago in both the Senate race between Fetterman and Oz and the gubernatorial race between Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) and state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R).
“Even though it’s not on the ballot, and really not a possibility with the governor in place it being an issue, the Democrats will want to talk about abortion and Republicans want to talk about crime and the border,” he said.
