There’s an action-packed weekend in store for the NASCAR Cup Series with Talladega Superspeedway on the schedule. It’ll be the second superspeedway race of the season following the Daytona 500.
Last week, Chase Elliott ended a 42-race winless streak with a big victory at Texas.
Elliott is a two-time Talladega winner and one of the top contenders on Sunday.
Superspeedway racing tends to lead to surprising results, and we should see a similar story at Talladega.
It’s a great week to find value on the odds board.
Keep reading for my favorite prop bets for the Geico 500 at Talladega.
NASCAR Cup Series: Geico 500 prop bets
Driver matchup: Corey Lajoie over Austin Dillon (+100, DraftKings)
Corey Lajoie won’t be in contention most weeks, but he’s typically a strong contender at superspeedways. Lajoie has nine career top-10 finishes, all coming on drafting tracks.
If we focus on the last two superspeedway races, Lajoie has a pair of fourth-place finishes. That includes this year’s Daytona 500.
Austin Dillon is a two-time winner at Daytona and finished runner-up in the 2022 Spring race at Talladega. Lately, he’s had zero luck at superspeedways, finishing 33rd or worse in every race at Daytona and Talladega since 2023.
With the uncertainty at Talladega, it’s not a terrible idea to blindly bet any matchup at plus-money. Saying that, I still believe Lajoie is a better superspeedway racer and should finish ahead of Dillon.
William Byron to win Group H (+275, Caesars)
Group H features three drivers with a combined eight victories at Talladega. The fourth driver in the Group is William Byron, who enters this weekend with no wins at the track.
Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are three-time Dega winners, with Chase Elliott capturing two victories. Despite the lack of wins, I like Byron’s upside to take down the other three drivers.
Byron has been very consistent at Talladega, finishing seventh or better in four of his last seven starts. There’s no doubt Blaney will be his biggest competition, as the No. 12 has three straight top-two finishes at Dega.
I don’t see Logano or Elliott as a major threat to Byron. Ultimately, I like the +275 odds for one of the most consistent superspeedway racers.
Top Chevy: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+1400, bet365)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has long been considered one of the most aggressive superspeedway drivers. That often rubs drivers the wrong way and leads to a wreck. However, it can also lead to a great finish.
Stenhouse has three wins across Daytona and Talladega, including the 2023 Daytona 500. The big reason I like Stenhouse on Sunday is his speed at superspeedways in the Next-Gen era.
Across the eight superspeedway races in 2022 and 2023, Stenhouse had the No. 1 speed ranking at both Daytona and Talladega. It’s not as important here as other tracks, but it doesn’t hurt his chances.
We often see a big wreck wipe out half the field at Talladega. If Stenhouse can survive, he has a good chance to lead the Chevy brigade.
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Ryan Blaney to win + Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano to finish top-10 (+2900, FanDuel)
There’s so much uncertainty at Talladega that I wanted to find one big longshot. I found a bet under FanDuel specials featuring three of the best superspeedway drivers in the field.
I hate to bet on favorites at Talladega but Ryan Blaney would be my lone exception. I mentioned his recent success and that he’s a three-time Talladega winner.
The big wreck seems to find Logano, but he’s still one of the best at running up front on superspeedways. Hamlin is a two-time Talladega winner, with top 10s in six of his last nine starts.
I expect all three drivers to be in contention for the win on Sunday. If we have good fortune, this could provide a generous payout for bettors.
