I’m banking on a low-scoring game between the Mets and Pirates on Wednesday afternoon.
Although the Mets and Pirates have flashed power in the early season, neither lineup consistently produces, with both ranking around league average in wRC+.
Meanwhile, these two relief corps have pitched excellently in the early going, with both bullpens ranking among the top-five MLB teams in reliever WAR.
And the weather won’t help the hitters, as it’s projected to be chilly with cross-field winds at Citi Field.
Based on the bleak weather report, ballParkPal projects a -17 percent Run Factor.
Mets starter Luis Severino has kept his fastball velocity up, so he’s struck out 17 batters in 15 innings.
That’ll play against a Pirates lineup that ranks bottom-10 in strikeout rate (24 percent).
Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter has managed to keep his average exit velocity way down (85 mph, 90th percentile among qualified pitchers), so he’s mostly able to pitch to contact.
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The Mets make plenty of contact, but it’s all soft, as they rank 27th in hard-contact rate (25 percent).
I think Severino and Falter can grind out four or five good innings with some added weather help.
If that happens, the solid bullpens and pedestrian lineups should keep the game Under the listed total.
The play: Mets-Pirates Under 8 runs (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
