Small business optimism at lowest point since 2012: Survey

Optimism among small business owners is at its lowest point since 2012, according to a survey released Tuesday.

The “Small Business Economic Trends” survey, from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), found that the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 0.9 points to 88.5, its lowest point since Dec. 2012. The index, featuring a random sample of 506 NFIB member firms, includes factors like business owners’ plans to increase employment and whether they think the economy will get better.

“Small business optimism has reached the lowest level since 2012 as owners continue to manage numerous economic headwinds,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a press release. “Inflation has once again been reported as the top business problem on Main Street and the labor market has only eased slightly.”

The survey noted in a “commentary” section that “the small business sector is showing signs of a potential slowdown in economic activity with net sales expectations falling 8 points, the main contributor to the decline in last month’s Index.”

“However, continued stress in navigating inflation pressures leads as the top business problem,” the section reads. “Inflation continues to frustrate owners as a significant share of them still report it as their biggest problem in operating their business.”

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that interest rates could rise to 8 percent or higher in a letter to shareholders Monday.

“[W]e are prepared for a very broad range of interest rates, from 2% to 8% or even more, with equally wide-ranging economic outcomes — from strong economic growth with moderate inflation (in this case, higher interest rates would result from higher demand for capital) to a recession with inflation; i.e., stagflation,” Dimon wrote. 

“Economically, the worst-case scenario would be stagflation, which would not only come with higher interest rates but also with higher credit losses, lower business volumes and more difficult markets,” Dimon continued. “Under these many different scenarios, our company would continue to perform at least okay. Importantly, being prepared means we can continue to help our clients no matter what the future portends.”

Inflation went up in March, according to data from the Department of Labor released Wednesday, but it has cooled down since two years ago. The consumer price index (CPI), commonly used to measure inflation, rose 0.4 percent last month.