A severe weather outbreak is unfolding Wednesday as numerous thunderstorms roll across the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, and it’s expected to persist nearly all day and into the night, the FOX Forecast Center said.
An early FOX Forecast Center analysis of data from Katy, Texas, indicates low-level rotation at the time, and the early pictures and videos from the scene would imply a concentrated area of damage, more resembling a tornado.
The National Weather Service in Houston is currently sending survey crews to determine whether the wind was straight-line or if it was indeed a tornado.
Just after 8 a.m. CDT, a “Particularly Dangerous” Tornado Warning was issued for New Roads, Louisiana by the National Weather Service in New Orleans. But the NWS canceled the warning a short time later and said a tornado was not observed.
A Tornado Watch is in effect for southeastern Louisiana and central and southern Mississippi until 1 p.m. CDT.
In addition, a Flash Flood Emergency has been posted in Kirbyille and Newton in southeastern Texas, where over 8 inches of rain has fallen in the past 24 hours.
“This is just the beginning. There’s not going to be a break today. It’s going to be very busy across the Gulf states,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said.
The central Gulf Coast faces the greatest severe weather threat on Wednesday, with a Level 4 out of 5 rating from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC). This includes more than 2 million people in portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
“It is significant when you look at how many times we get a 4 out of 5 alert for severe weather from the SPC during the peak of spring severe weather season, which we’re now entering,” Merwin said. “We will sometimes get two of those a month. So really put that in perspective.”
An even broader area of the South, from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, is at a Level 3 out of 5 risk of severe weather. More than 5 million people live within this risk zone.
During the morning hours, Louisiana is at risk of tornadoes and destructive wind gusts due to a thunderstorm complex rolling across the state. Some of the tornadoes could be EF-2 or stronger. As temperatures rise throughout the day, the storms will intensify and move into Mississippi. Additionally, thunderstorms could develop into intense lines of storms, resulting in 75-plus-mph wind gusts that would have the potential to cause widespread damage.
The SPC is warning of potentially widespread damaging winds, some of which may be “particularly damaging.” Large hail is also possible, but the threat of hail is lower than Monday and Tuesday.
“With the weather that’s moving through the Gulf states this morning and what we’re expecting throughout the day today, the real message is stay home, stay safe,” Merwin added. “You don’t want to be away from a safe area on a day like today.”
Some Louisiana schools, colleges and governments have already canceled classes and closed offices Wednesday due to the severe weather threat. Ascension Public Schools in Donaldsonville, Louisiana, said its “particular concern is the possibility of wind gusts up to 70 mph, which puts student travel at risk.”
New Orleans also announced all city offices would be closed Wednesday as well.
Once the sun sets Wednesday evening, the threat of tornadoes and damaging winds will continue as storms move across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia.
South also faces potential for life-threatening flooding
It’s not just the lightning, hail, wind and possible tornadoes threatening the South, but the multiple inches of rain that could trigger life-threatening flooding across parts of the region.
Flood Watches stretch from East Texas to the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia.
Already, over 8 inches of rain has fallen in Texas. Multiple Flash Flood Warnings have been issued across the South since Monday, including a Flash Flood Emergency in Kirbyille and Newton in southeastern Texas on Wednesday morning.
Due to flooding, all major roads into Kirbyville were closed Wednesday morning. Multiple fire departments deployed from around the region are conducting rescue efforts in the area.
“We have major flooding throughout the county at the midline with another line of storms coming,” the Jasper County Sheriff’s Office said.
The FOX Forecast Center said repeated rounds of storms capable of torrential rain will continue to lash the region through Thursday.
These storms will have the potential to drop copious amounts of rain in a short time, with rainfall rates over 2 inches an hour expected.
Many of these storms will happen at night, which only increases the danger. Helping to increase the flood threat is the fact that the soils remain wet from a soggy start to 2024.
Many locations have seen rainfall totals of 5- to 7-plus inches above average for the year. In addition to the flash flood threat, multiple rivers from Texas to Mississippi are expected to rise into flood stage, including the Trinity and Sabine rivers in Texas and the Ouachita River in Arkansas.
Georgia, Florida and South Carolina will be the focus Thursday
Attention will shift to the Southeast on Thursday, particularly across Florida, Georgia and southern South Carolina.
Computer forecast models suggest that a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will march east across the region during the morning. It remains uncertain whether that will be the primary driver of the severe weather threat or if additional severe storms develop that afternoon.
The primary threat with these storms will be 60-plus-mph wind gusts, along with quarter-sized hail.
Tuesday’s severe storms hit Texas, Louisiana
Severe thunderstorms swept through parts of Texas and Louisiana on Tuesday night. The storms were intense, and a handful of Tornado Warnings and dozens of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were issued throughout the region.
Strong storms brought an 88-mph wind gust to Briscoe, Texas, while Knox City, Texas, gusted to 78 mph. Some storms in Texas also produced baseball- and tennis ball-sized hail, including a report of tennis ball-sized hail in Austin.
