There is one certainty in 2024’s tumultuous campaign: If President Biden goes, Harris stays.
Democrats simply cannot replace Biden with anyone but Harris. Their base is so narrowed and their sense of identity-group politics so heightened that they cannot afford to fracture the former by ignoring the latter.
Add to this the reality that time is too short and the process too messy for changing their nominee now. It means that Biden stays, and Harris is the insurance policy that he does.
In a rematch that only Biden and Donald Trump seem to want, chaos prevails. Even with their nominations assured, both are still plagued by meaningless opposition.
In last Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary, Trump won 79 percent of the vote; Biden received 88.6 percent against “uninstructed” (8.3 percent) and unknown (Dean Phillips at 3 percent).
According to Real Clear Politics’ April 8 average national polling, in a two-way race, Trump leads with 46.2 percent; in a five-way race, Biden barely breaks 40 percent (40.1 percent).
Such low poll numbers for an incumbent are especially troubling because in America incumbents usually lead and win. In the last century, only four elected incumbents have lost reelection: Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and Trump.
Not surprisingly, there have been calls for Democrats to replace Biden on their ticket. The problem is that they cannot, because their alternative is worse.
The only time in the last century an elected incumbent, eligible for reelection, did not run was Lyndon Johnson in 1968. His vice president, Hubert Humphrey, was his replacement.
In such uncharted waters as today’s, precedents are important — demographics even more so. Humphrey was a white male. Would today’s Democrats be unwilling to accord a minority woman Humphrey’s treatment?
In 2020, Blacks voted 87 percent for Biden and women 57 percent. California went 63.5 percent for Biden (accounting for 5 million of his 7 million popular vote margin).
There is no reason to believe that Harris would step aside. After all, she ran for president in 2020 and accepted the vice presidency. Both are pretty strong evidence of serious interest in the top job.
There is even less reason to believe that her constituencies would be quiet if she were snubbed. Who would mollify them from the list of likely contenders? No one checks as many boxes on the identity-group politics bingo card as Harris. And none can claim the same executive experience at such a high level — unless Democrats are willing to admit publicly what they know privately: Harris has not been a good fit as vice president.
The not-so-secret secret is that Harris is the administration’s biggest disappointment. Her 2020 run was a flameout — she never even got to the starting line. Lasting only 11 months, Harris dropped out in 2019 without running in a primary or winning a single delegate, despite her seemingly attractive Democratic profile and access to California’s voters and money. Her campaign highlight was Biden’s campaign lowlight, when she accused him of being attached to racist policies and figures.
Although both Joe and Jill Biden took Harris’ attack in the worst way possible, she got the Democratic ticket’s second spot. Harris has only gone downhill from there.
Even with a favorable establishment press, stories got out about her limitations. She went from ineffective to invisible. Even compared to a sequestered president, her low profile has been conspicuous.
As a result, at 37.2 percent, Harris has a lower favorability rating than either Trump or Biden. Matching Democrats’ share of the 2020 vote, essentially only the party faithful view Harris favorably.
The conclusion is that Democrats are stuck with Harris. If they could have removed someone from the ticket, she would have been the logical first choice. Democrats did not do it. And they did not ditch her because they had put her on the ticket for a reason, despite her devastating and highly personal attack on the nominee.
That reason still prevails among Democrats.
Democrats cannot afford to drop Harris because that would be bad. And Democrats cannot replace Biden with Harris, because that would be even worse.
So Democrats are stuck with Harris, and therefore they are stuck with Biden.
J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.
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