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Purdue-UConn pick
The two best teams all season long meet in the national championship game when the No. 1 seed UConn Huskies take on the No. 1 seed Purdue Boilermakers.
ESPN BET is favoring UConn by 6.5 points and that feels like a fair spread. At first look, I wanted to take the Huskies to cover the spread, but the major college basketball analytic outlets have UConn favored by a lower amount, so I’ll lean on those resources and take Purdue to cover.
KenPom, BartTorvik, Haslametrics, ShotQualityBets and Action Network’s PRO projections each favor UConn by about two to four points in this matchup, and I can’t just ignore those outlets. And it kind of makes sense when you realize that UConn (36-3) and Purdue (34-4) have similar records, and the Boilermakers have been about as dominant as the Huskies have been in this tournament.
Aside from its six-point win over Tennessee in the Elite Eight, Purdue has won its tournament games by 28, 39, 12, and 13 points (and it’s 13-point win over NC State was not as close as the final score indicates). UConn deserves the love as a dominant team, but the Boilermakers aren’t that far behind.
Nobody has been able to slow down Zach Edey either. The 7-foot-4 big man is averaging 28.0 points, 15.4 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game on 65.4% shooting, and that level of play will always keep Purdue in the game. UConn’s Donovan Clingan will be his toughest defender yet, but Edey has the post moves and soft touch to overcome Clingan’s length.
It’s also important to remember that the Huskies looked a bit mortal in their win over Alabama. That was not a wire-to-wire win like most of UConn’s victories, and Purdue has the outside shooting to ease the pressure off Edey.
Fade the public and take Purdue to cover with the ESPN BET promo code NPNEWS.
Pick: Purdue +6.5
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