The sides and moneyline in the Final Four matchup between North Carolina State and Purdue are so well calibrated that I don’t find much value in them.
But there’s certainly value in the player prop market.
Here’s one on my betting card for Saturday night.
North Carolina State vs. Purdue prediction
(6:09 p.m. ET, TBS)
Zach Edey rightfully gets all of the national attention when it comes to the Boilermakers, but Purdue wouldn’t be in the national semifinal without Braden Smith.
The sophomore point guard has made huge strides this season and has helped elevate Matt Painter’s offense from 12th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency in 2022-23 to second this season.
Smith is one of the nation’s finest facilitators, recording 7.5 assists per game (second).
He’s surpassed seven assists in 18 of his 35 starts this season and is averaging 9.5 per game during this tournament run.
A big reason for his high assist average is his teammates shooting stroke from deep (40.6%, second) and Edey’s ability to finish inside 10 feet.
He has four assists directly to Edey in each of his last two games.
Meanwhile, the Wolfpack allow assists on half of opponent-made baskets, which ranks 158th nationally.
Essentially, they allow opponents to share the basket efficiently, while rarely forcing teams into isolation.
And when it comes to surpassing high-volume props like this one, the ability I care most about is availability. Can Smith stay on the court long enough to clear this assist total?
Recent history indicates that he can.
Betting on College Basketball?
If you remove Purdue’s blowout win over Utah State in the Round of 32 and his exit due to injury against Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament, he’s averaged 37 minutes per game dating to late January.
Sean Koerner, the head of The Action Network’s Predictive Analytics department, projects Smith at 36.5 minutes in this game.
Barring injury or a blowout, Smith should be in line for 7-10 assists, making this prop bet, at plus-money, too attractive to pass up.
The Bet: Braden Smith to record 8+ assists (+128, FanDuel)
