The Francis Scott Key Bridge that collapsed in Baltimore this week, after being hit by a disabled cargo ship, is a tragedy. Lives have been lost. Property has been destroyed. The closure of the Port of Baltimore has massive financial ramifications for the state and the supply chain along the East Coast; the bridge serves as an import transportation pathway along I-695, with over 11 million vehicles using the bridge every year, translating into over 30,000 vehicles per day on average.
Calls for accountability and reparation are ubiquitous. Insurers will likely have to pay billions of dollars in claims. The federal government appears willing to pay for the construction of a bridge to replace the collapsed one, based on a statement from President Biden. The cost of the new bridge has been estimated to run as high as $350 million — or more. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has expressed his concerns, touching upon all these issues and the complexity of the situation in the coming months.
Little good appears to come from any such incident. Except any time an accident of this magnitude occurs, a root cause analysis will look for the cause of the incident, and ways to have averted the calamity. Such knowledge will invariably make not only the Baltimore harbor safer in the future, but potentially every other harbor around the nation, as new waterway safeguards are identified and, perhaps, implemented.
Yet in any root cause analysis, one must weigh the cost of averting a calamity, the cost of a calamity when it does occur, and the likelihood of such a calamity.
Over a 55-year span (from 1960 to 2015), 35 bridges collapsed around the world due to ship collision, with 342 lives lost. This translates into around two such events every three years, with around 10 lives lost per incident. Over one-half of these events occurred in the United States (18).
Yet most ship collisions with bridges do not result in catastrophic outcome as was seen in Baltimore. A Coast Guard study published in 2003 found that during a10-year span, from 1992 to 2001, there were 2,692 ship accidents with bridges in the United States, or about five per week on average. The majority of such events (over 85 percent) led to zero or minimal damage.
The takeaway from the Baltimore Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse is that risks are ubiquitous. Precautions can be taken, and all safety protocols can be followed and adhered to. Yet “stuff happens,” nearly always unplanned, creating an environment that can spawn tragedies.
That is why the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) exists. They look at the aftermath of any transportation accident to identify why it happened and provide recommendations that can lead to safer transportation in the future. The list of investigations that they have underway at any time is both long and substantive, covering all modes of transportation. This highlights the risk that is present across the nation’s transportation systems, and why each of us plays an important role in remaining vigilant and alert when we are on a flight or driving in our vehicle. The likelihood of a bad event occurring is exceedingly small, but it is not zero.
Transportation accidents and fatalities occur daily around the nation. On an average day in 2021, there were over 16 thousand vehicle accidents, with just over 100 of them resulting in a fatality. Air travel deaths occur at an even lower rate, with 358 civil aviation deaths in 2022, none of which were on commercial flights. Any of these events will be viewed as a tragedy by those affected.
After the initial response to the Baltimore Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse subsides, and plans begin for rebuilding the structure and restoring order to the Port of Baltimore, the lesson learned is that risks cannot be avoided, but they can be managed. The astute actions of police in closing the bridge once the ship’s mayday call went out likely saved dozens of lives. These first responders are the heroes in this event. The fact that the incident occurred at 1:30AM saved countless lives, with fewer people traversing the bridge than if the crash had occurred at, says, 730AM, during a busy rush hour.
Whatever recommendations come out of the NTSB, what is certain is that events like what happened in Baltimore are rare, given the volume of waterway traffic around the nation’s ports and the number of bridges that exist. Aging infrastructure may pose more of a risk to such structures than ship strikes. This means that a pause in the aftermath of an event is a useful time to ensure that the best response is uncovered, and moving forward, that the most sensible actions are taken.
Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of Computer Science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. A data scientist, he applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy.
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