America is competing with Russia and China in a great power struggle. This trilateral standoff marks a new era of global tensions; anticipating future challenges is important, including rising geopolitical tensions in Antarctica and their impact on U.S. national security.
Russia and China are currently increasing their control over the territories and resources in Antarctica, while the United States is giving less importance to the region. Neglecting to pay closer attention to this area and support American endeavors could lead to a setback in our ability to compete with our most formidable adversaries and safeguard our national security.
Antarctica was off-limits for countries as an economic and national security arena during the Cold War. That is far from the case now. The Antarctic Treaty, negotiated under the Eisenhower administration, aims to manage existing territorial claims, prevent new ones, and prevent Antarctic mineral exploration. Around 55 countries are party to the treaty, while approximately 82 stations are maintained by 30 countries on the continent.
Since 1982, the treaty system for Antarctica has taken a practical form through the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Living Resources. This organization serves as a platform for member states, including China and Russia, to discuss and implement policies for the future of the continent.
However, the thaw of the Cold War has caused the erosion of these guardrails. Experts Daniel Runde and Henry Ziemer from CSIS have stated that the efforts to limit great power competition from entering Antarctica and prevent military use of the continent are no longer as effective as they once were.
Emerging technologies, such as new icebreakers, all-weather airstrips, drones and remote-sensing technologies, are increasing competition between powers and may disrupt the consensus around Antarctica. New technologies may lower barriers for countries seeking to increase their presence and benefit from the region’s resources. Meanwhile, Russia and China are incorporating Antarctica into their national security strategies, disregarding the treaty system.
The current power struggles in the Arctic region and around the North Pole may provide a glimpse into what could happen in Antarctica and around the South Pole. While the Arctic has been in the news lately due to the increasing militarization and competition over hydrocarbon resources, there has been little discussion about national security and grand strategy in the South Pole region. Even though the Arctic Treaty System has been able to withstand challenges until now, a possible discovery of valuable natural resources in the Antarctic could lead to a breaking point.
Russia’s actions contradict its previous stance on keeping Antarctica demilitarized. Its growing interest in the Antarctic region, including the establishment of Russkaya Station as a potential electronic and anti-satellite warfare site, is not limited to national security, as it also seeks to expand its fishing sector in the area. Without a defined posture and efforts from the U.S., Russia could become the dominant force in the region.
The increasing military presence of China in Antarctica has raised serious concerns among experts and policymakers, as the strategic location of the continent could lead to severe consequences for global security. The latest hypersonic missile test by China, known as the Long March 2C rocket, has raised the alarm that the United States could be attacked from the South Pole and evade our current missile defense systems. This vulnerability arises from the existing missile defense systems being solely focused on the North Pole, leaving the nation’s underbelly exposed to potential attacks. We must take this issue seriously and work toward developing a robust defense mechanism to safeguard ourselves against any potential threat.
Compared to the clear action plans and proactive endeavors that Russia and China have taken in Antarctica, the United States does not have nearly as much to show for it.
In 2021, the US National Security Strategy did not mention Antarctica even once. The Pentagon study found that American leadership in the Arctic and Antarctic regions has been inconsistent over the decades since the Cold War. Despite occasional displays of interest and power projection, indifference has been the norm, allowing China and Russia to undermine American influence. The study warns of a potential strategic imbalance in areas of great geopolitical and geostrategic importance.
Another recent study revealed that the United States has displayed inconsistent leadership in the Arctic and Antarctic regions since the Cold War. This has allowed China and Russia to gain more influence in these areas, which could have serious implications for the United States.
Our national security and domestic politics rely heavily on our competition with Russia and China. Sadly, the public’s trust in the government’s ability to compete and succeed is at an all-time low. It’s vital that our leaders not only discuss the importance of this competition but also take action.
One key area that requires more attention is our competition with these two nations in Antarctica. If we continue to ignore this region as we have for many years, we will face the consequences of our neglect. At our peril, we risk losing America’s claim to a strategically significant area and falling behind in our race with Russia and China.
Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.) is a former member of Congress who served on Defense Appropriations and the Intelligence Committee.
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