Johnson’s Plan B for Ukraine leaves questions unanswered

Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) Plan B for Ukraine aid has raised as many questions as it’s answered.

The Speaker told Republican senators last week that he intends to send them legislation providing new military funding for Kyiv, after the House considers a separate spending package to prevent a government shutdown on March 22.

And in a subsequent interview with Politico, Johnson indicated that he plans to move that proposal with a procedural tool that will require support from a substantial number of Democrats. He also floated the idea of splitting Ukraine aid from a bill providing more military help for Israel.

The vague outline of a strategy has created plenty of uncertainty about the specific path he intends to pursue, including how Johnson plans to incorporate the tougher border security measures he’s previously demanded into a national security supplemental; how he intends to win Democratic support for a proposal that strays from the Senate-passed foreign aid package they’ve insisted upon; and how he’ll prevent a revolt from conservatives — many of them opposed to more Ukraine aid, particularly without stronger border policies — if he rejects their demands. 

Johnson on Friday suggested a number of those details remain up in the air. 

“We’re looking at all the options on all the issues on the table, and we’re just not ready to make a pronouncement on that yet,” Johnson said Friday when asked if he is considering Ukraine aid legislation that lacks border security.

But pressed on the prospect of moving assistance for Kyiv without policies addressing the situation at the southern border, Johnson reiterated his long-held talking point that border security must be the top priority.

“I believe, and the American people believe, we have to secure our own border as the top priority, and I think that is a sentiment that the vast majority of the people in the country expect and deserve and we’re gonna continue to press for that,” he told reporters.

The months-long impasse —combined with the worsening plight of Ukraine’s defensive forces — has frustrated Kyiv’s supporters in both parties, who are wondering when Johnson will finally arrive at a decision. 

“The great unanswered question at the moment is that Mike Johnson keeps telling everybody he’s going to get aid to Ukraine, he’s going to get aid to Israel. Nobody has any idea how,” Rep. Adam Smith (Wash.), the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, said before Johnson’s remarks to senators and Politico.

“So the great unanswered question is what his plan is,” he continued. “And I don’t know.”

The debate is highlighting the quandary Johnson and other GOP leaders have found themselves in as they wrestle with a strategy for helping Ukraine repel Russia’s invading forces. 

On the one hand, Johnson says he wants to shore up support for Ukraine’s beleaguered military, which has lost ground to Russia in recent weeks and is running short on ammunition. During the House GOP retreat in West Virginia last week, the Speaker said, “I understand the timetable and understand the necessity of the urgency of the funding.” 

On the other, the Speaker is being careful not to antagonize conservatives in his own conference, who are wary of sending billions of dollars more to Kyiv, particularly if Congress doesn’t act simultaneously to strengthen security on the U.S.-Mexico border.

Hanging over him is the constant threat of a motion to remove Johnson’s gavel, which led to the toppling of his predecessor. 

“The ridiculous nature of this place is: If you brought the bills individually, I think they would pass,” said Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.). “But our Speaker’s between a rock and a hard place. I mean, if he brings them individually, it could cost him his job.”

In a delicate effort to thread the needle, Johnson on Wednesday told Senate Republicans that he intends to modify their foreign-aid package, which provides roughly $60 billion for Ukraine, by making the assistance a loan program rather than a grant. That proposal, at least in theory, would take some of the burden off U.S. taxpayers, and it has the additional advantage of being championed by former President Trump, who had previously helped to kill a Senate package combining foreign aid with domestic border security. 

Johnson, in addressing the senators, also promoted the idea of paying down the Ukraine aid through the confiscation and liquidation of Russian assets seized around the globe — an idea proposed by Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Texas), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee who’s pressing hard for more Ukraine aid. 

Asked in West Virginia if Johnson has given him a commitment that he will bring a Ukraine aid bill to the floor, McCaul declined to discuss personal conversations but said, “it is my belief that he will,” noting that it would be after the appropriations process wraps up.

But how GOP leaders plan to cobble the various pieces together — and how they intend to pass them through a bitterly divided House — remains unclear.

Johnson on Friday suggested he’ll continue to insist on tougher border security as part of the larger national security debate. 

“We always prioritize border security, that’s a very important part of the equation and the conversation and I’ve been consistent about that since day one,” he said.

But the border provisions he’s demanded have been soundly rejected by Democrats — the same Democrats he’d need to pass the bill by the procedural maneuver, called the suspension calendar, that he’s eyeing to move the legislation. That process would allow GOP leaders to sidestep any opposition from conservatives, but would also require a two-thirds majority to send the package to the Senate — a bar impossible to reach without significant Democratic buy-in.

“I think it is a stand-alone, and I suspect it will need to be on suspension,” Johnson told Politico. 

By “stand-alone,” Johnson was stipulating that he doesn’t want to attach the foreign aid provisions to the “minibus” spending bill that Congress is poised to consider this week to prevent a government shutdown, or any other must-pass legislation this year, a leadership aide told The Hill.

But he hasn’t ruled out splitting the various pieces of the foreign aid package into separate bills, to receive separate votes, according to the leadership aide. House Republicans have already voted twice on the Israel component — the first passed and the second did not — but the idea has gone nowhere in the Democratic-controlled Senate as lawmakers push to consider all components of the national security supplemental in one package.

The aide noted, however, that the components of the foreign aid legislation are still being worked through with members, and there is no guarantee on being able to move something.

Pressure, meanwhile, is mounting on Johnson to act.

President Biden on Friday used a public appearance with Johnson to implore the Speaker to approve assistance for Kyiv, making a plea during the Friends of Ireland Luncheon at the Capitol for Congress to send him the Senate’s national security supplemental.

“I’m confident the vast majority — and excuse me for saying this — but I think a vast majority of members of Congress are willing to do their part. And I continue to urge every member in this room to stand up to Vladimir Putin. He’s a thug,” Biden said, prompting applause from those in the room, including Johnson, who was seated just a few feet away.

Leo Varadkar, the taoiseach of Ireland, echoed that call, declaring “Ukraine must not fall and together we need to stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

Johnson is also racing against a pair of discharge petitions that are accumulating signatures in an attempt to force a vote on aid for Kyiv.

One discharge petition, led by Rep. James McGovern (D-Mass.), would circumvent leadership and bring the Senate foreign aid bill to the floor. The other, spearheaded by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), would trigger a vote on his national security supplemental that includes aid for Ukraine and Israel in addition to border security provisions.

Neither, however, has garnered enough support to circumvent leadership, leaving all the power in Johnson’s hands as he grapples with how to address the thorny issue of Ukraine aid.

Lawmakers are waiting for — and closely watching — his next move.